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Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - Energy: Oil, Gas, Uranium and Carbon Emission
Commodity 5 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Brent Oil rebounded off of rising trend line, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the strong support (decided by where there break out occurred prior to the price went almost vertical) at around $96.75
It now seems to be rejected at the 0.618 retracement of the sell-off following the blow out peak. We are likely to see a few days with minor set-back before a likely move higher. A break above $123.73 will most likely lead to a test of the 7th March peak at $139.13. No divergence on RSI indicates new highs possibly testing all-time highs at $147.50 - see Monthly chart. But an extension of the uptrend to 1.382 projection of this month's correction at $155.25
This bullish scenario will be demolished if Brent Oil drops below the strong support line at around $96.75.
After the “Boom and Bust” scenario unfolding earlier this month Dutch TTF Gas is being rejected at the 21 Daily SMA. For further upside a break above €132.75 is needed. Below €94.82 prices around 65 is not unlikely. Spring has arrived in Europe?
Contrary to Dutch Gas the US gas prices are on the rise. Henry Hub Gas has broken longer term falling trend line closing in on the strong resistance at around $5.52
Uranium is in an uptrend initiated after bullish break out earlier this month. Currently the Uranium ETF URA:arcx is trading around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at around 26.68. There is minor RSI divergence however, so a correction down to around 25 is not unlikely.
However, as long as URA stays above 22.50 uptrend is intact.
Carbon Emission seems to have been rejected at around the 0.618 retracement . A Bear Engulfing candle Wednesday signals a top and reversal. RSI not being able to break above 60 threshold indicates bear trend is likely to resume. A break below €75 is likely to fuel a sell-off down to around 68.
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