Technical Update -  Energy: Oil, Gas, Uranium and Carbon Emission

Technical Update - Energy: Oil, Gas, Uranium and Carbon Emission

Commodity 5 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Brent Oil rebounded off of rising trend line, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the  strong support (decided by where there break out occurred prior to the price went almost vertical) at around $96.75
It now seems to be rejected at the 0.618 retracement of the sell-off following the blow out peak. We are likely to see a few days with minor set-back before a likely move higher. A break above $123.73 will most likely lead to a test of the 7th March peak at $139.13. No divergence on RSI indicates new highs possibly testing all-time highs at $147.50 - see Monthly chart. But an extension of the uptrend to 1.382 projection of this month's correction at $155.25

This bullish scenario will be demolished if Brent Oil drops below the strong support line at around $96.75. 

Source: Saxo Group

After the “Boom and Bust” scenario unfolding earlier this month  Dutch TTF Gas  is being rejected at the 21 Daily SMA. For further upside a break above €132.75 is needed. Below €94.82 prices around 65 is not unlikely. Spring has arrived in Europe?

Source: Saxo Group

Contrary to Dutch Gas the US gas prices are on the rise. Henry Hub Gas has broken longer term falling trend line closing in on the strong resistance at around $5.52

 

Source: Saxo Group

Uranium is in an uptrend initiated after bullish break out earlier this month. Currently the Uranium ETF URA:arcx is trading around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at around 26.68. There is minor RSI divergence however, so a correction down to around 25 is not unlikely.

However, as long as URA stays above 22.50 uptrend is intact.

Source: Saxo Group

Carbon Emission seems to have been rejected at around the 0.618 retracement . A Bear Engulfing candle Wednesday signals a top and reversal. RSI not being able to break above 60 threshold indicates bear trend is likely to resume. A break below €75 is likely to fuel a sell-off down to around 68.

Source: Saxo Group

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-mena/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.