COT report: WTI net long sinks to 16-year low, dollar shorts trimmed further

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) finished the reporting week to 12 August flat as losses in energy and precious metals were offset by gains in industrial metals and softs. Risk appetite improved across equities—again led by U.S. tech—while the dollar eased. Energy prices softened ahead of Friday’s Putin–Trump meeting in Alaska, with hopes of a “peace dividend” and ongoing OPEC+ supply increases weighing on sentiment.

Energy
Speculators held the first-ever combined net short across the two major WTI contracts (CME and ICE). ICE WTI—often used in Brent–WTI spread trades—sat at a net short of 53.3k. On CME, the WTI net long fell to a 16-year low of 49k, down ~80% since January. Together with additional Brent selling, the combined crude net long (Brent + WTI) dropped to a three-month low of 202.5k. The positioning in WTI is notably light; while the immediate catalyst is unclear, any shift in the technicals or fundamentals could force a sharp short-covering rebound.

Metals
A quiet week for precious metals: gold stayed range-bound near USD 3,350, lacking a fresh trigger. Managed-money net long fell 5% in gold and 8% in silver. Palladium’s net short jumped 87% to 4.8k. In base metals, buyers returned to copper, lifting the net long 36%, helped by supply disruption at a major Chilean mine following a fatal accident.

Grains
USDA’s WASDE surprised with larger-than-expected U.S. corn output and tighter soybeans, sending corn and wheat lower while soybeans firmed. Funds cut their soybean net short by 47%, while adding to net shorts in corn and wheat. The combined grain net short across the six major CBOT contracts eased slightly to 416k, but remains near a one-year high as expectations for a bumper global crop continue to pressure prices.

Softs 
Position changes were limited despite sharp price gains—notably cocoa (+12%), alongside strength in coffee and sugar.

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

• They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
• This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
• It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.