Market Quick Take – 25 February 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Equities: US bounced as artificial intelligence panic cooled, Europe steadied with chip gains, Asia mixed, with Hong Kong down and China up
• Volatility: Volatility: Vix lower, event risk ahead, 0dte puts still pricier
• Digital Assets: Digital assets: Majors firmer, ibit/etha slightly softer, crypto proxies bid
• Fixed Income: Fixed Income: Japan’s yield curve steepens sharply on dovish BoJ nominees
• Currencies: Currencies: JPY weaker after dovish BoJ nominees, but USD slightly weaker still. AUD strong on inflation data.
• Commodities: Commodities: Gold and especially silver rebound strong in Wednesday’s Asia session
• Macro events: Macro: US 5-year Treasury auction

Macro headlines

• US President Trump’s State of the Union speech was short on policy hints on trade, tariffs or fiscal or foreign policy as he spent most most of his time in the speech touting his strong record, the state of the economy, including improved inflation trajectory and the stock market. He also attacked political opponents, the Supreme Court for its recent decision on his tariffs and noted plans to go after what he described as voting fraud.
• Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi announced two Bank of Japan nominees that were seen as “reflationist” and therefore dovish. This inspired a sharp steepening in the Japanese yield curve, with short yields falling slightly, while the longest dated yields rebounded strongly after their recent steep fall.
• US Consumer Confidence rose by 2.2 points to 91.2 in February despite affordability and labor market concerns, per Conference Board data.
• The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.4% year-over-year in December 2025, indicating a cooling housing market as gains lagged behind 2.7% inflation. Chicago led with a 5.3% increase, while Tampa fell 2.9%. Sun Belt markets like Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami also saw declines.
• US private employers added an average of 12,750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending February 7, 2026, up from 11,500 previously, per ADP. This marks the fastest hiring pace since late November, indicating accelerating job growth.
• The UK CBI retail sales balance fell to -43 in February 2026, with sales described as “poor.” Sentiment is low, leading to reduced investment and employment. Retail prices grew normally, while online sales surged. Inventory management is cautious amidst weak demand and rising costs.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0840 – Australia RBA’s Bullock in Fireside Chat
1800 – US Treasury to auction 5-year notes
0000 – New Zealand Feb. ANZ Activity Outlook and Business Confidence surveys

Earnings this week

• Today: Nvidia, HSBC Holdings, JX Companies, Lowes Companies, Iberdrola, Synopsys, NU Holdings, Snowflake, E.ON, Bayer, Diageo, Zoom Communications
• Thursday: Deutsche Telekom, Salesforce, Schneider Electric, Rolls Royce Holdings, Intuit, AXA, Monster Beverage, Dell Technologies, Coreweave, Rocket Lab
• Friday: BASF, Holcim, Swiss Re

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: USA: The S&P 500 and the Dow rose both 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.0% to 22,863.68. Investors treated Monday’s artificial intelligence, AI, disruption scare as a stress test, not a verdict, even as a new 10% blanket import tariff took effect and talk of 15% lingered. AMD jumped 8.8% to $213.84 after Meta agreed to deploy about 6 gigawatts of AMD graphics processing units, GPUs, for AI data centres, while Salesforce rose 4.1% and IBM gained 2.7% as software rebounded. Home Depot climbed 2.0% after an earnings beat, and Nvidia’s results is the next obvious catalyst.
• Europe: Europe: The STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.2% to 629.14 and the Euro STOXX 50 was flat at 6,116.60. Investors trimmed Monday’s AI-led gloom, but trade policy uncertainty stayed in the background as markets looked ahead to Nvidia’s earnings. ASML added 1.1% and Infineon gained 1.7% as AI infrastructure demand stayed in focus, and Volkswagen rose 1.7% as the US tariff headline landed softer than feared. Novo Nordisk stayed under pressure as investors continued to digest the CagriSema update and what it means for the obesity-drug race. Edenred climbed 3.9% after earnings, while banks lagged, leaving Europe steady rather than euphoric.
• Asia: Asia: Asia ended mixed: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.8% to 26,590.32, while China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.9% to 4,117.41 and Japan’s Nikkei added 0.9% to 57,321.09; Singapore’s STI slipped 0.4% to 5,020.79. Risk appetite improved in parts of the region, but Hong Kong dragged as geopolitics and tariff nerves fed into another bout of tech selling. Alibaba fell 2.8% and CK Hutchison dropped 2.7% as Panama moved to scrap its canal-port contracts, while OCBC eased 1.2% after results and dividend news, a classic “good news, already priced” moment. Singapore Airlines rose 1.0% before reporting a 69% profit drop that reflected last year’s one-off gain and higher costs, keeping investors cautious on the next set of earnings

Volatility

• Volatility cooled on Tuesday, with the VIX closing at 19.55, while shorter-term gauges such as VIX1D (12.71) and VIX9D (18.60) also moved lower. This suggests investors are less concerned about immediate shock risk, but are still not fully relaxed about the broader outlook. The tone remains event-driven rather than trend-driven.
• Today’s potential catalysts include remarks from U.S. President Trump, euro area CPI data, U.S. crude oil inventories, and—most importantly for global risk sentiment—Nvidia’s earnings after the U.S. close. Large-cap tech remains a key driver of overall equity direction, and earnings surprises here can quickly ripple through global markets.
• SPX expected move (into 27 Feb expiry): options pricing implies roughly ±90.8 points (±1.32%) around current levels near 6,890. This provides a useful frame for how much movement the market is currently pricing for the remainder of the week.
• 0DTE skew indicator (today’s expiry): downside skew remains visible, with puts trading at higher implied volatility than comparable calls near the money. In practical terms, investors are still paying more for downside protection than for upside exposure, indicating ongoing demand for insurance rather than outright speculation.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are firmer this morning. Bitcoin trades near $65,041, Ethereum around $1,889, Solana near $81.9, and XRP around $1.36, reflecting a stabilisation after recent volatility. The rebound appears supported by improved sentiment in U.S. equities and cooling AI-related stress in technology shares.
• Crypto-linked equities are participating in the move, with names such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy trading higher. However, the major spot ETFs show a more cautious tone intraday: IBIT (~$36.53) and ETHA (~$14.03) are slightly softer. This divergence suggests that while risk appetite is returning, institutional ETF flows are not yet signaling aggressive accumulation.
• Recent options flow in crypto-related stocks also points to active risk management rather than capitulation. Deep in-the-money put activity in Coinbase and MicroStrategy indicates structured hedging and risk transfer, rather than speculative panic. Overall, the message from digital assets is constructive but measured: prices are rebounding, yet positioning remains disciplined.

Fixed Income

• US treasuries sold off Tuesday as risk sentiment recovered and many AI-linked stocks rebounded. The benchmark 2-year yield rebounded from below 3.44% to close the day near 3.46% while the benchmark 10-year yield only lifted very slightly off the lows nae 4.02%, trading a bit higher in Wednesday’s Asian session at above 4.04%.
• US High yield debt spreads versus US treasuries posted a marginal new high for the year despite stronger risk sentiment in equities. The Bloomberg measure we track of high yield spread to US treasury yields rose Tuesday by a basis point to 281 basis points, the highest level since mid-December.
• Japanese government bonds sold off in the wake of Japan’s PM Takaichi announcing two BoJ Board nominations that were seen as dovish and even “reflationist”. While the benchmark 2-year yield was little changed, the 10-year benchmark rose four basis points and the 30-year benchmark rose more than six basis points and was trading near 3.38% in late Tokyo hours Wednesday.

Commodities

• After a weak session Tuesday, Gold and silver rebounded strongly in Wednesday’s Asian session, perhaps prompted by Japanese PM Takaichi nominating two new BoJ members seen as dovish. Gold rose from Tuesday lows just below 5,100 to test above 5,200 per ounce Wednesday in Asia, still shy of the high earlier this week near 5,250, while silver rallied sharply to new local highs since early February, clearing the USD 91 per ounce level at one point before falling back.
• Crude oil continues to trade nervously, but backed away from the recent multi-month highs in Tuesday’s session.

Currencies

• The US dollar was modestly weaker in the Asian session Wednesday as USDJPY dipped back below 156.00 despite news of dovish BoJ nominations (see above), while EURUSD rebounded from 1.1772 to above 1.1800.
• The Australian dollar found fresh strength on firmer than expected CPI data that heightened anticipation of further RBA policy tightening, with AUDUSD rebounding back above 0.7110 Wednesday after closing Tuesday below 0.7060. EURAUD hit a new cycle low since March of last year below 1.6600 while AUDNZD tested new decade-plus highs above 1.1880.

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