Market Quick Take – 18 September 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Fed cut left U.S. mixed as chips sank; Europe flat into the Fed and BoE; Asia firmer with Hong Kong at 4-year highs
• Volatility: Fed cuts 25bps; VIX drops; SPX ±38pt expected move; quarterly expiry ahead
• Digital Assets: BTC steady at $117k; ETHA inflow; SEC eases ETF rules; crypto stocks red
• Fixed Income: Treasury yields lift off lows as FOMC developments were already priced
• Currencies: US rallies hard post-FOMC after initial sell-off
• Commodities: Gold and silver in steep reversal as USD rallies post-FOMC
• Macro events: Norway Rate Announcement, Bank of England Rate Announcement, US Weekly Jobless Claims, Japan CPI, Bank of Japan

Macro headlines

• The Fed cut rates 25 bps to 4.00–4.25%, as expected, citing a shift in risk balance. Eleven Fed voters, including Trump board nominees (from his first term) Bowman and Waller supported the move, while new Governor Miran dissented, favoring a 50-bp cut. Median projections showed 2 more cuts in 2025, but with a large group of Fed forecasters seeing no further change to the policy rate this year. The Fed also downgraded its labor market view, noting slower job gains and a slight rise in unemployment, while inflation remains elevated.
• The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bps to 2.50%, citing a weaker economy and reduced inflation risks, with unemployment at 7.1%. Governor Macklem noted potential future cuts, given softening labor market and dissipating inflation pressures, while emphasizing careful risk assessment amid trade uncertainties.
• Australia’s Aug. Unemployment Rate came in steady at 4.2% as expected, while Full-time employment dropped -41k and part time employment rose 35.5k. The participation rate dropped 0.2% to 66.8%.
• New Zealand's economy contracted 0.6% YoY in Q2 2025, driven by a 4.7% drop in goods-producing industries. Meanwhile, service industries grew 0.5% and primary sectors increased 0.1%. Quarterly GDP fell 0.9%, countering Q1's growth.
• China told its tech firms to stop buying Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D AI chip and terminate all its existing orders ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting on Friday.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0800 – Norway Norges Bank Rate Announcement
1100 – UK Bank of England Rate Announcement
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims
1230 – US Sep. Philly Fed Survey
1400 – US Aug. Leading Index
1430 – US Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change
2301 – UK Sep. GfK Consumer Confidence
2330 – Japan Aug. National CPI

Earnings this week

• Today: FedEx, Lennar, Darden Restaurants, Next PLC
• Thu:

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: S&P 500 −0.1%, Nasdaq −0.3%, Dow +0.6% after the Fed cut 25 bps and signaled two more moves this year while staying non-committal beyond 2025. Tech lagged on fresh China curbs chatter as Nvidia −2.6% and Broadcom −3.8% fell on reports Beijing told local firms to halt Nvidia chip purchases. Defensives and Dow constituents steadied the tape with American Express +2.7% and Procter & Gamble +1.4% as yields edged up and breadth improved outside megacap tech. Focus turns to tomorrow’s earnings run-rate checks and whether chips stabilize after the headlines.
• Europe: STOXX 50 flat (−0.1% at 5,370) and STOXX 600 flat (−0.0% at 550.5) as traders parked risk ahead of the Fed and today’s BoE. UK CPI held at 3.8% y/y, keeping cuts tentative; FTSE 100 +0.1%. Stock-specifics did the work: PostNL jumped on a new 2028 plan splitting Parcels into E-commerce and Platforms, while Novo Nordisk rose after a broker upgrade. Energy and staples were mixed as rates and FX moves set the tone into BoE guidance.
• Asia: Regional tone improved into policy clarity. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +1.8% Wednesday to 26,908 on AI enthusiasm and easing U.S.–China tension signals; mainland China was modestly higher. Baidu surged +15.7% after an Arete upgrade tied to its AI chip venture, Nio +11% on strong sales and a new SUV push, and Shandong Hi-Speed +17.6% on a buyback; SMIC, Meituan, and Tencent also advanced.

Volatility

• Volatility eased modestly after the Fed’s 25bp rate cut, with the VIX closing at 15.72 (−3.91%) and VIX1D dropping sharply by over 8.7%. The move reflects post-FOMC digestion as markets priced in further easing this year. Despite the calm, the options market still signals latent risk: into Friday’s quarterly expiry, dealer positioning could magnify any macro shock. Keep an eye on today’s jobless claims and Philly Fed index for fresh direction. S&P 500 closed at 6,600.35, down −0.1%.
  SPX expected move today: ±38 points (~0.57%), based on ATM straddle pricing.

Digital Assets

• Crypto prices held steady after the Fed’s rate cut, with BTC at $117k and ETH at $4.6k, as easing monetary policy rekindled risk appetite. IBIT slipped −1.05%, despite a $150m inflow, while ETHA added +0.53% following $25.9m in new capital. The SEC approved new listing rules, streamlining spot crypto ETF launches—seen as a key catalyst for coins like SOL ($245) and XRP ($3.09). Crypto stocks lagged, with COIN −2.24%, MSTR −1.61%, and MARA −1.08%, despite positive longer-term tailwinds from rate cuts and ETF momentum.

Fixed Income

• In the wake of the FOMC meeting, US Treasuries briefly rallied to test the lows of the cycle before selling off sharply. The entire yield curve lifted a few basis points from the prior day’s close before settling back a bit overnight after the choppy reaction. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield this morning finds itself a bit more than three basis points above the pre-FOMC daily close at 3.53% while the benchmark 10-year yield is at 4.06%, likewise three basis points above the pre-FOMC daily close.
• Ahead of tonight’s CPI data from Japan and Bank of Japan meeting, Japan’s short yields are pinned at the highs of the cycle near 0.88%.

Commodities

• Gold and silver corrected lower after a brief run higher in the wake of the release of the FOMC statement late yesterday, with gold trading USD 3,650 per ounce this morning after teasing the 3,700 highs and silver all the way down to 41.33 this morning after the attempts to retake 42.00/ ounce late yesterday.

Currencies

• The US dollar initially sold off on the release of the Fed’s new monetary policy statement and economic and policy projections, but then rallied during the Fed Chair Powell’s press conference, apparently deciding that the Fed’s likely policy path was already priced in before the meeting. EURUSD finds itself back below 1.1800 this morning after trading above 1.1900 briefly late yesterday, while USDJPY bounced hard off a 145.49 low, trading 147.25 this morning.
• The Aussie rallied despite a weak jobs report from Australia. AUDNZD traded above 1.1200 for the first time since late 2022, boosted further by a soft Q2 New Zealand GDP print.

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