Market Quick Take – 28 November 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Thanksgiving holiday left U.S. shut, while Europe edged higher on Fed cut and peace hopes and Asia firmed
• Volatility: VIX back near 17, mild downside skew, low holiday volumes.
• Digital assets: BTC steady above 91k with small ETF inflows, ETH/ETHA and major alts stabilise
• Fixed Income: Diverging rates outlook in the US and Japan a key focus
• Currencies: Dollar holds weekly loss amid rate cut focus
• Commodities: Silver and platinum lead strong weekly gain across metals
• Macro events: French and German Q3 GDP, ECB inflation expectations.

Macro headlines

• Trading of futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), one of the world’s largest exchanges, was halted in early Friday trading due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers. The halt has affected contracts including those for key commodities, Treasuries and S&P500 futures.
• Turbulence arose after the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility released its report early, showing weaker growth and higher inflation forecasts. Investors were reassured by Chancellor Rachel Reeves expanding the fiscal buffer to £22 billion and bond issuance below expectations at £303.7 billion. Despite concerns over delayed fiscal tightening, traders found the package less severe than expected.
• Core consumer prices in Tokyo rose 2.8% year-on-year in November, slightly above expectations, fueling speculation of a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan amid persistent inflation and a weak yen. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda warns that global trade volatility may affect growth, leaving the timing uncertain.
• Germany's GfK Consumer Climate Indicator rose to -23.2 for December 2025 from -24.1. Buying willingness improved, and saving willingness decreased. Economic expectations and income expectations both declined. Consumer sentiment is stable compared to last year, suggesting strong Christmas sales, but no significant near-term recovery is expected.
• During the October 29–30 meeting, ECB policymakers opted to keep interest rates unchanged due to uncertainty, with some suggesting no further easing is needed. The policy was deemed appropriate, thanks to a strong economy and inflation near target. They highlighted the 2% deposit rate as robust enough for managing shocks. With conditions meeting projections, some thought rate cuts might be finished, while others recommended staying open to future changes.
• The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose to 97.0 in November 2025 from 96.8 in October. Confidence improved in services, retail, and construction, while manufacturing declined and consumer confidence stayed unchanged. Inflation expectations rose, with consumer expectations up 1.2 points to 23.1, and manufacturers’ up 2.1 points to 9.9. ESI improved in Spain, Italy, and France, and remained stable in Germany and the Netherlands.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

November CPI: France (0745), Spain (0800), Italy (1000), and Germany (1300)
Q3 GDP: France (0745), Italy (0900), and Canada (1330)
0900 – ECB CPI Expectations

Earnings events

• Today: Unibail-Rodamco

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: U.S. equities were unchanged Thursday as the NYSE and Nasdaq closed for Thanksgiving.
• Europe: European equities extended gains in thin, U.S. holiday-affected trade, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.1% to about 575, Germany’s DAX rising 0.2% toward 23,800 and the FTSE 100 essentially flat. Hopes for a December Fed cut and tentative progress toward a Ukraine peace framework kept risk appetite steady even after this week’s strong run. Within sectors, financials and exchanges outperformed as Deutsche Börse advanced after a JPMorgan upgrade, while chipmaker Infineon and Siemens Energy helped support the DAX. Puma was the standout, surging in the mid-teens after reports that China’s Anta Sports and other bidders are exploring a takeover, with investors now watching for any formal offer or regulatory reaction.
• Asia: Asian equities traded firmer, led by Japan while Hong Kong inched higher. The Nikkei 225 climbed about 1.2% to roughly 50,200 as investors responded to Wall Street’s tech-driven gains and Japan’s plan to issue around ¥11.5 trillion in bonds to fund new economic support. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.1% to 25,946, its fourth straight advance, supported by financials and China’s latest consumption-boost plan despite weaker October industrial profits and renewed worries over property developers after China Vanke delayed a bond payment. Pop Mart International jumped 6.8%, Smoore Holdings 4.5%, Laopu Gold 4.5% and biotech Akeso 4.2%, as traders now look to upcoming Chinese activity data and any follow-up policy steps from Beijing.

Volatility

• Volatility continues to cool into the Thanksgiving break. The VIX has slipped back to around 17 after sitting above 25 just a week ago, while the very short-dated VIX1D is near 15, signalling expectations for smaller day-to-day swings as the S&P 500 grinds higher around 6,800. With US markets closed yesterday and an early close today, volumes are thin, so any surprise from German CPI or the Chicago PMI could still move prices. Based on current SPX options, the market is implying roughly a ±160-point (~2.4%) trading range for the coming week around the 6,800 level.
• Skew remains tilted to the downside: today’s 28 November SPX expiry still shows out-of-the-money puts trading richer than comparable upside calls, indicating that investors are insuring against shocks rather than positioning for a sharp sell-off. Together with a VIX futures curve that sits above spot, this points to a “calmer but still jumpy” regime in which bad news could quickly push volatility higher again.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are stabilising after a harsh November. Bitcoin is trading just above USD 91,000, up around 8% on the week after briefly dipping toward USD 80,000, but still roughly 30% below its October peak – leaving this as one of its weakest Novembers since 2019. Growing expectations of a December Fed rate cut, with futures now pricing an 85–90% chance of a 25 bp move, are supporting risk appetite. Spot bitcoin ETFs have turned modestly positive again, with US products seeing around USD 20m of net inflows on 26 November, led by roughly USD 40m into IBIT after earlier record outflows.
• Ethereum trades near USD 3,000 and ETHA’s NAV rose about 3% mid-week, suggesting ETF investors are cautiously rebuilding ETH exposure as derivatives positioning resets. Major alt-coins such as solana, XRP, Cardano and Polygon are moving in relatively tight ranges, with some giving back part of this week’s bounce. Security remains a key theme: Korean exchange Upbit halted Solana deposits after a roughly USD 36m hot-wallet breach, while DeFi protocol Balancer is working on an USD 8m reimbursement plan after its November exploit.
• For long-term investors, this points to a market where leverage has been flushed out, but platform risk and news-driven swings still argue for gradual scaling rather than aggressive timing

Fixed Income

• US 10-year Treasury yields hold near a one-month low around 4% following the Thanksgiving holiday with traders increasingly warming up for a December rate cut.
• Japan’s 10-year bond yield held steady near a 17-year high above 1.8%, as expectations grow for a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan due to high inflation and a weak yen. BOJ officials and Governor Kazuo Ueda have highlighted inflationary pressures and the need for more data on wage growth.
• UK government's recent Budget announced a slightly increased gilt issuance target of £303.7 billion for the 2025/26 fiscal year, a figure lower than market expectations that led to a positive reaction from investors. UK 10-year Gilt yields had been bid up ahead of the budget announcement, but has since declined, closing Thursday at 4.45% from a pre-budget high of 4.61%

Commodities

• The Bloomberg Commodity Index was on track for a strong week prior to the CME futures disruption, with gains across most sectors except energy, where diesel prices slumped as concerns about Russian supply risks eased. The index is up 1.4% on the week and 15% year-to-date, supported primarily by metals as silver, gold, and copper all posted solid advances. The standout performer is platinum—though not included in the index—after the launch of futures trading in China provided an additional demand catalyst for the PGM complex. Agriculture gained 1.1%, with broad strength across grains and softs contributing to the sector’s rise.
• Crude prices are heading for their steepest run of monthly losses since 2023, pressured by rising supply from producers both outside—and increasingly inside—the OPEC+ group. This week’s brief hope of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal also weighed on sentiment, though that prospect has since faded. WTI and Brent remain firmly rangebound, with the latter stuck in a broad USD 60–67 corridor.
• Silver and platinum are delivering a strong performance this week, with silver trading just below USD 54.50, a level that has capped two previous rallies, after fully retracing October’s 16% correction. Platinum has surged following the launch of a new futures contract in China aimed at both institutional and retail investors, expanding market participation in a metal already characterised by tight supply.

Currencies

• The dollar trades near a two-week low, with the DXY hovering around 99.5, as markets price in a rising probability of Fed rate cuts. Sentiment has been reinforced by Kevin Hassett emerging as a leading contender for Fed chair, aligning with the Trump administration’s preference for lower rates. The strongest performers over the week have been the antipodeans, scandies, and sterling.
• The yen weakened back above 156 per dollar despite growing expectations of an early Bank of Japan rate hike, following a 2.8% rise in Tokyo’s core CPI for November and faster retail-sales growth in October.
• AUDUSD climbed toward 0.6530, a two-week high, after higher-than-expected inflation supported a more hawkish RBA outlook. October headline inflation rose to 3.8%, while trimmed mean inflation reached 3.3%, both above forecasts. A previously tight labour market had allowed the RBA to hold rates steady, but the latest data have increased pressure for further tightening.

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