Market Quick Take - New S&P 500 all-time high - 14 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Producer prices undershot and handed the disinflation story a second leg into retail sales
• Equities: Wall Street set records on chip strength while Applied Materials was faded after hours
• Volatility: Index protection stayed cheap but refused to cheapen further as stocks pushed to records
• Digital Assets: Crypto idled beneath the equity rally while Goldman bought into crypto income funds
• Commodities: Oil and metals ease as profit-taking follows recent gains
• Fixed Income: Yields eased across the curve on soft producer prices and an orderly bond auction
• Currencies: Extremely rangebound market in G3 majors as markets look around for a catalyst.

Macro

• US producer prices were flat in July against consensus for a 0.2% monthly rise, with the core measure up 0.2% against 0.3% expected and final-demand prices up 4.7% year on year from 5.5% in June. Landing a day after the in-line CPI, the report consolidated expectations of a Federal Reserve hold at next month's meeting and extended the relief that has carried equities through the week.
• US Initial weekly jobless claims rose 9,000 to 209,000 in the week to 8 August, above the 204,000 consensus, a further sign of gradual cooling in the labour market.
• UK GDP grew 0.4% in Q2, matching expectations after 0.6% in Q1. June GDP rose 0.3% m/m, beating flat forecasts. Meanwhile, UK manufacturing output fell 0.5% m/m in June 2026, worse than May’s revised -0.2% and below expectations. Annual growth slowed to 0.5% from a revised 2.0%, missing the 1.2% forecast.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, but the energy premium that has kept headline inflation risk alive has started to deflate, with crude giving back part of its gains as the week closes without fresh escalation.
• Today's calendar centres on US consumption. July retail sales land at 1230 GMT, with consensus near 0.2% to 0.3% on the month and a 0.2% rise excluding autos, followed by the preliminary August University of Michigan sentiment survey at 1400 GMT. Next week brings the FOMC minutes, and the Jackson Hole symposium follows on 27 to 29 August under a financial-innovation theme.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0900 – Eurozone 2Q GDP
• 1230 – US July Retail Sales
• 1400 – US Preliminary August University of Michigan Sentiment

Earnings events

Friday: Aviva, ASICS

Earnings highlights for next week:

• Tuesday: Home Depot, BHP Group, Keysight Technologies, Coloplast, Klarna, Carlsberg
• Wednesday: Analog Devices, TJX Companies, Lowe’s Companies, Target, Estee Lauder, Geberit, Carlsberg
• Thursday: Walmart, Deere & Co, AIA Group, Ross Stores, Netease, Fortescue, Novonesis

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: US equities set records after the soft producer-price data. The S&P 500 rose 0.65% to 7,798.99, a record close, and traded above 7,800 for the first time with an intraday high of 7,816.70. The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.15% to 30,084.50 and the Russell 2000 touched a record above 3,060 during the session, while the Dow added 0.13%, held back by Cisco extending its post-earnings decline. Leadership was tech-heavy: Tesla rose 3.80% and Meta 2.78%, software was strong with the IGV software ETF up 3.1%, and the equal-weight S&P added only 0.16%, so the advance was again concentrated. Amazon lagged the megacaps, down 0.8%. After the close, Applied Materials fell around 5% despite its beat and strong guidance.
• Europe: European equities ended little changed before Wall Street's late push to records. The Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.04% to 659.25, stabilising after Wednesday snapped its seven-day winning streak, with the DAX down 0.12% at 26,299.74 and the CAC 40 off 0.28% at 8,650.56. The AEX stood out with a 0.66% gain and the SMI added 0.18%, while the FTSE 100 was flat near 10,800. The benign US inflation data supported sentiment without producing a broad advance.
• Asia: The Asian chip rally is extending into a third session. Korea's Kospi rose about 2.7% this morning and briefly traded above 7,000 for the first time, again led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, after Thursday's 3.56% advance to 6,813.34. Japan's Nikkei gained around 1.4% to about 69,250, with Kioxia and SoftBank among the leaders. China lagged once more, the Hang Seng down 0.17% and the CSI 300 down 0.57% at the 06:00 CET snapshot, and US index futures were near flat after the record close.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

• Soft producer prices extended the disinflation relief and the S&P 500 closed at a record, yet the vol floor held: VIX edged up 0.55% to 14.63 while VIX1D sits at 9.49 and VIX9D at 11.37, so the surface appears to be pricing today's retail sales as a modest event.
• The cash curve remains in firm contango, 14.63 spot against 18.61 at three months, with the front future at 18.05. SKEW eased to 134.37 and MOVE fell 4.0% to 69.23. SPX options imply 0.41% for today's expiry and 1.12% into next Friday.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

• Crypto idled beneath the equity records, with spot majors barely changed overnight and DVOL easing to 34.80. The listed proxies drifted lower on the session: Coinbase slipped about 1%, Strategy 1.3% and most miners eased, a pause after the neocloud-driven miner strength earlier in the week.
• Goldman Sachs agreed to buy ETF manager NEOS Investments for up to USD 2.25 billion, folding its bitcoin and ether income funds into the bank's asset-management arm, a further institutional step into crypto-linked income products.

Commodities

• The BCOM TR Index trades up 1.7% this month, taking its year-to-date gain to 25%, with advances seen across all sectors except energy, where WTI crude and natural gas are the only major contracts trading lower. Precious metals continue to lead, with a 7.4% monthly gain despite some end-of-week profit-taking, bringing the sector’s YTD performance back to flat. Agriculture follows with a 2.8% gain, led by sugar, cocoa and wheat, while industrial metals are up around 1% amid broad but relatively modest gains.
• Oil: Crude has given back part of its geopolitical risk premium. Brent eased around 2% to near USD 87 after six consecutive gains, while WTI traded near USD 81 in early Friday dealing. The absence of fresh escalation around the still-closed Strait of Hormuz, combined with the previous week’s very large US inventory build, has encouraged some profit-taking. In our view, the pullback looks more like position-trimming than a fundamental change in the supply outlook, particularly while the Strait remains almost closed, and regional production and export capacity remain constrained.
• Precious metals: Gold trades lower for a second day as profit-taking sets in following a strong run of gains, with tame US inflation data and reduced expectations for further rate hikes largely priced in for now. Silver has slipped back below USD 64 after almost reaching USD 67 earlier in the week. Despite the pullback, the underlying backdrop remains supportive in our opinion, with lower rate expectations, renewed investor demand and continued official-sector buying helping underpin the sector.
• Industrial metals: Copper futures also traded lower on profit-taking following a week that delivered further supportive supply-side developments. Producers continue to struggle to maintain output levels, while robust demand and pre-tariff stockpiling in the US have drawn metal towards American warehouses, tightening the pool of readily available supply elsewhere. These dynamics continue to support an underlying tightening narrative despite the latest bout of price consolidation.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields rallied Thursday after the soft PPI data (see above) and slight rise in the weekly initial jobless claims. The front end of the US Treasury yield curve came in sharply lower, down about five basis points and eyeing the lows for the last four weeks near 4.15%. At the longer end of the curve, the 10-year yield also fell about five basis points to 4.65%, but still traded within the recent range. A 30-year T-bond auction saw steady demand with yields near 20-year highs.
• European government bonds rallied in sympathy with US Treasury counterparts Thursday, with the strongest move lower in yields in the five-year BOBL in Germany, where the benchmark fell more than five basis points at one point intraday to below 2.85% before rebounding back toward 2.87%. The benchmark 10-year German Bund yield also dropped back, trading 3.13% late Thursday after shying away from the 3.20%+ yield area earlier this week for the third time in recent weeks and for a fourth time since mid-May.

Currencies

• Currency volatility in the majors is extremely constrained as traders lack conviction. This could be a tactical reluctance to send USDJPY toward 160.00 in fear of official intervention from Japan, or as the market awaits more conviction on the direction of Fed policy or rates volatility on incoming macro data. In any case, EURUSD is lost in one of its tightest two-week ranges in a long time between 1.1500 and 1.1580.
• EURCHF pulled to a new cycle high above 0.9390 Thursday, another new high for 2026, with 16-month highs just north of 0.9450 the next major chart point above 0.9400.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis