Market Quick Take – 6 October 2025
Market drivers and catalysts
- Equities: US mixed on Friday, with tech weaker even as S&P 500 ekes out new record
- Volatility: Sideways volatility.
- Digital Assets: Bitcoin rallied to a record at the weekend before easing back.
- Currencies: JPY blasted lower on bombshell news of Takaichi election
- Commodities: Gold hits fresh record, crude steadies on modest OPEC+ hike
- Fixed Income: Japan’s yield curve steepens dramatically on
- Macro events: Eurozone Aug. Retail Sales
Macro headlines
Japan’s LDP leadership election resulted in a shock victory for conservative-leaning fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi, just days after odds were thought to have tilted in favour of another candidate. Takaichi has proposed increased local government subsidies, eliminating the extra gasoline tax, and reducing diesel fuel costs. She is considering lowering the consumption tax and pledged to honor US agreements. The news triggered a massive slide in the Japanese yen, a dramatic steepening in Japan’s yield curve as long JGB yields rose sharply, and a huge rally in Japanese stocks, with the major indices there hitting record highs and the Nikkei up nearly 5% at one point.
OPEC+ will raise oil output from November by 137,000 barrels per day, opting for the same modest monthly increase as in October amid persistent worries over a looming supply glut into 2026. In the run-up to the meeting, Russia (less) and Saudi Arabia (more), the two biggest producers in the OPEC+ group, had different views, sources have said.
Gold’s biggest rally since the 1970s is being stoked by investors fearful of missing out on returns and worried about inflation add the precious metal to their portfolios. The bullion price has rocketed nearly 50% this year to a record high near USD 4,000 a troy ounce after US President Donald Trump’s trade war sparked a rush to haven assets and sent the dollar tumbling.
The US Sep. ISM Services PMI fell to 50 in September 2025 from 52 in August, below the 51.7 forecast, indicating a stall. Business activity remained stable, new orders slowed, and inventories contracted. Employment continued in contraction due to delayed hiring and staffing challenges. Price pressures intensified, with the index at 69.4, its second-highest since October 2022. Supplier delivery rates were the slowest since February, while backlog contraction eased. Ten industries grew, two fewer than August, as the number contracting rose to seven.
US President Trump blamed Democrats for the US government shutdown and potential layoffs, while NEC Director Hassett said mass federal layoffs will start if Trump views shutdown talks as unproductive.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
0730 – Germany September Construction PMI
0900 – Eurozone August Retail Sales
Earnings this week
- Today: Constellation Brands
- Thursday: Pepsico, Progressive Corporation, Delta
- Friday: Blackrock
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
- USA: The S&P 500 and Dow eked out record closes Friday (S&P barely above flat; Dow +0.5%), while the Nasdaq fell −0.3% as a tech wobble capped gains; the shutdown-delayed payrolls report kept the macro foggy but didn’t dent the tape. Utilities led; Energy lagged with softer crude. Notables: Applied Materials −2.7%, Tesla −1.4% weighed on the Nasdaq; UnitedHealth and Caterpillar supported the Dow.
- Europe: The STOXX 600 closed Friday +0.5%, posting the best week since April (+2.8%), with banks and miners carrying the day; healthcare remained the week’s outperformer after earlier sector-friendly headlines. Single-name standouts: Raiffeisen +6–7% on chatter the EU may unfreeze Deripaska-linked assets; ABN AMRO +2% on a broker upgrade. FTSE 100 pushed a record intraday high on financials/miners.
- Asia: Japan ripped on the Takaichi shock: Nikkei +4.9% (a record, in Tokyo afternoon hours today), Topix +3.3% as her LDP leadership win stoked hopes of Abenomics-style fiscal support and a slower BOJ hike path. Defense/industrial/auto/semis outperformed (e.g., Mitsubishi Heavy double-digits), while banks lagged on softer tightening odds. Elsewhere in Asia, many bourses were holiday-thinned (Mainland China closed; Korea/Taiwan closures today), Hong Kong slightly softer, Australia mixed with gold names offsetting tech.
Volatility
- The VIX closed Friday almost unchanged, still near the highest close since early September, with notable volatility in some single stock speculative names even as the broader market managed a slightly higher close.
Digital Assets
- Bitcoin surged to a record high over the weekend, briefly rising above 125k on Sunday before falling back and trying to rally again in Asian hours overnight – but faltering near 124k. Ethereum only managed a marginal new local high above 4,600 on Sunday before chopping back to the 4,500 area.
Fixed Income
- US treasury yields rebounded slightly on Friday and rose further still in overnight trading today on the sharp rise in Japan’s bond yields (more below). The benchmark 2-year treasury yield is up less than a basis point on top of Friday’s three basis-point rise, trading 3.58%, while the benchmark 10-year yield is up three basis points in overnight trading after rising four basis points on Friday – now at 4.15%.
- A dramatic steepening took place in Japan’s government bond yield curve on the election of Sanae Takaichi to lead the LDP as she is set to become Japan’s next Prime Minister. She has expressed views against Bank of Japan tightening and in favor of more fiscal stimulus. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield dropped three basis points from Friday’s close to trade near 0.91%. At the very longest end of Japan’s yield curve, the benchmark 40-year bond rose 16 points from Friday’s close to trade as high as 3.56% in afternoon Tokyo hours today, near the highs of the range since the spike in May that saw the yield rise as high as 3.69%.
Commodities
- Brent crude trades back above USD 65 after OPEC+ agreed to a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day from November—well below what had been feared ahead of the weekend meeting. The decision only partially reversed last week’s 7% decline, with lingering concerns about oversupply into 2026 continuing to weigh on sentiment.
- Gold powering to another record, closing in on the USD 4,000 per ounce mark and lifting its year-to-date gain to nearly 50%. Private and institutional investors continue to add exposure through bullion-backed ETFs amid fears of missing out on a year-long rally driven by persistent fiscal and geopolitical risks, including growing doubts about Federal Reserve independence and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
- Tight supplies have propelled silver and platinum higher by 64% and 92% respectively so far this year. Silver traders are now eyeing the 2011 record high near USD 50, while platinum’s discount to gold continues to narrow. The gold–platinum ratio has dropped from 3.54 in April to 2.43, though it remains above the 10-year average near 1.8.
- Cocoa futures slumped 10% last week to a 1½-year low, pressured by expectations that higher farm-gate prices in Ghana and Ivory Coast will unlock previously withheld stocks and support improved crop sales and future supply.
Currencies
- The bottom dropped out of the Japanese yen on the bombshell news that Sanae Takaichi will lead the LDP and is set to become Japan’s next prime minister, given her vocal support for more fiscal stimulus and less Bank of Japan tightening. USDJPY was nearly 2% lower at one point overnight as it ripped to a new local high clear of 150.00 after Friday’s close near 147.50, while EURJPY posted a record high clear of 176.00 after closing just above 173.00 on Friday.
- Elsewhere, the US dollar was slightly firmer, rising against the Euro and Sterling and sideways versus the Australian dollar.
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