QT_QuickTake

Market Quick Take - 6 October 2025

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Be Invested
Saxo Strategy Team

Market Quick Take – 6 October 2025


Market drivers and catalysts

  • Equities: US mixed on Friday, with tech weaker even as S&P 500 ekes out new record
  • Volatility: Sideways volatility.
  • Digital Assets: Bitcoin rallied to a record at the weekend before easing back.
  • Currencies: JPY blasted lower on bombshell news of Takaichi election
  • Commodities: Gold hits fresh record, crude steadies on modest OPEC+ hike
  • Fixed Income: Japan’s yield curve steepens dramatically on
  • Macro events: Eurozone Aug. Retail Sales

Macro headlines

Japan’s LDP leadership election resulted in a shock victory for conservative-leaning fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi, just days after odds were thought to have tilted in favour of another candidate. Takaichi has proposed increased local government subsidies, eliminating the extra gasoline tax, and reducing diesel fuel costs. She is considering lowering the consumption tax and pledged to honor US agreements. The news triggered a massive slide in the Japanese yen, a dramatic steepening in Japan’s yield curve as long JGB yields rose sharply, and a huge rally in Japanese stocks, with the major indices there hitting record highs and the Nikkei up nearly 5% at one point.

OPEC+ will raise oil output from November by 137,000 barrels per day, opting for the same modest monthly increase as in October amid persistent worries over a looming supply glut into 2026. In the run-up to the meeting, Russia (less) and Saudi Arabia (more), the two biggest producers in the OPEC+ group, had different views, sources have said.

Gold’s biggest rally since the 1970s is being stoked by investors fearful of missing out on returns and worried about inflation add the precious metal to their portfolios. The bullion price has rocketed nearly 50% this year to a record high near USD 4,000 a troy ounce after US President Donald Trump’s trade war sparked a rush to haven assets and sent the dollar tumbling.

The US Sep. ISM Services PMI fell to 50 in September 2025 from 52 in August, below the 51.7 forecast, indicating a stall. Business activity remained stable, new orders slowed, and inventories contracted. Employment continued in contraction due to delayed hiring and staffing challenges. Price pressures intensified, with the index at 69.4, its second-highest since October 2022. Supplier delivery rates were the slowest since February, while backlog contraction eased. Ten industries grew, two fewer than August, as the number contracting rose to seven.

US President Trump blamed Democrats for the US government shutdown and potential layoffs, while NEC Director Hassett said mass federal layoffs will start if Trump views shutdown talks as unproductive.


Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
0730 – Germany September Construction PMI
0900 – Eurozone August Retail Sales

Earnings this week

  • Today: Constellation Brands
  • Thursday: Pepsico, Progressive Corporation, Delta
  • Friday: Blackrock

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.


Equities

  • USA: The S&P 500 and Dow eked out record closes Friday (S&P barely above flat; Dow +0.5%), while the Nasdaq fell −0.3% as a tech wobble capped gains; the shutdown-delayed payrolls report kept the macro foggy but didn’t dent the tape. Utilities led; Energy lagged with softer crude. Notables: Applied Materials −2.7%, Tesla −1.4% weighed on the Nasdaq; UnitedHealth and Caterpillar supported the Dow.
  • Europe: The STOXX 600 closed Friday +0.5%, posting the best week since April (+2.8%), with banks and miners carrying the day; healthcare remained the week’s outperformer after earlier sector-friendly headlines. Single-name standouts: Raiffeisen +6–7% on chatter the EU may unfreeze Deripaska-linked assets; ABN AMRO +2% on a broker upgrade. FTSE 100 pushed a record intraday high on financials/miners.
  • Asia: Japan ripped on the Takaichi shock: Nikkei +4.9% (a record, in Tokyo afternoon hours today), Topix +3.3% as her LDP leadership win stoked hopes of Abenomics-style fiscal support and a slower BOJ hike path. Defense/industrial/auto/semis outperformed (e.g., Mitsubishi Heavy double-digits), while banks lagged on softer tightening odds. Elsewhere in Asia, many bourses were holiday-thinned (Mainland China closed; Korea/Taiwan closures today), Hong Kong slightly softer, Australia mixed with gold names offsetting tech.

Volatility

  • The VIX closed Friday almost unchanged, still near the highest close since early September, with notable volatility in some single stock speculative names even as the broader market managed a slightly higher close.

Digital Assets

  • Bitcoin surged to a record high over the weekend, briefly rising above 125k on Sunday before falling back and trying to rally again in Asian hours overnight – but faltering near 124k. Ethereum only managed a marginal new local high above 4,600 on Sunday before chopping back to the 4,500 area.

Fixed Income

  • US treasury yields rebounded slightly on Friday and rose further still in overnight trading today on the sharp rise in Japan’s bond yields (more below). The benchmark 2-year treasury yield is up less than a basis point on top of Friday’s three basis-point rise, trading 3.58%, while the benchmark 10-year yield is up three basis points in overnight trading after rising four basis points on Friday – now at 4.15%.
  • A dramatic steepening took place in Japan’s government bond yield curve on the election of Sanae Takaichi to lead the LDP as she is set to become Japan’s next Prime Minister. She has expressed views against Bank of Japan tightening and in favor of more fiscal stimulus. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield dropped three basis points from Friday’s close to trade near 0.91%. At the very longest end of Japan’s yield curve, the benchmark 40-year bond rose 16 points from Friday’s close to trade as high as 3.56% in afternoon Tokyo hours today, near the highs of the range since the spike in May that saw the yield rise as high as 3.69%.

Commodities

  • Brent crude trades back above USD 65 after OPEC+ agreed to a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day from November—well below what had been feared ahead of the weekend meeting. The decision only partially reversed last week’s 7% decline, with lingering concerns about oversupply into 2026 continuing to weigh on sentiment.
  • Gold powering to another record, closing in on the USD 4,000 per ounce mark and lifting its year-to-date gain to nearly 50%. Private and institutional investors continue to add exposure through bullion-backed ETFs amid fears of missing out on a year-long rally driven by persistent fiscal and geopolitical risks, including growing doubts about Federal Reserve independence and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
  • Tight supplies have propelled silver and platinum higher by 64% and 92% respectively so far this year. Silver traders are now eyeing the 2011 record high near USD 50, while platinum’s discount to gold continues to narrow. The gold–platinum ratio has dropped from 3.54 in April to 2.43, though it remains above the 10-year average near 1.8.
  • Cocoa futures slumped 10% last week to a 1½-year low, pressured by expectations that higher farm-gate prices in Ghana and Ivory Coast will unlock previously withheld stocks and support improved crop sales and future supply.

Currencies

  • The bottom dropped out of the Japanese yen on the bombshell news that Sanae Takaichi will lead the LDP and is set to become Japan’s next prime minister, given her vocal support for more fiscal stimulus and less Bank of Japan tightening. USDJPY was nearly 2% lower at one point overnight as it ripped to a new local high clear of 150.00 after Friday’s close near 147.50, while EURJPY posted a record high clear of 176.00 after closing just above 173.00 on Friday.
  • Elsewhere, the US dollar was slightly firmer, rising against the Euro and Sterling and sideways versus the Australian dollar.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    The Fed launched a new easing cycle in late Q3. Will this cycle now play out like 2000 or 2007?
  • Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.


Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.