Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Many active FX traders focus on central bank decisions, inflation releases, government budgets and other macro events. These moments can offer strong directional opportunities, but they also bring sharp intraday moves and gaps that are difficult to manage with spot alone.
This case study follows Jane, a Singapore-based trader who is experienced in FX spot but new to options. It shows how she uses FX options alongside her existing spot trading to manage event risk in a more defined way.
Jane trades major currency pairs, with a particular focus on USD-related crosses that react to Federal Reserve decisions, US data and regional developments in Asia. Her typical approach has been to:
This worked well in calm markets. However, during volatile events she ran into familiar problems:
Jane wanted a way to stay positioned for post-event moves without being forced out by every intraday swing.
Saxo offers FX options on many of the currency pairs she already trades in spot, such as USD/JPY. After reading a basic introduction to FX options, she concentrates on two simple structures:
The key idea that appealed to her was straightforward: when she buys an FX option, her maximum loss is limited to the premium she pays for that option. There is no margin call if the market moves sharply against her and no forced exit due to a short-term spike.
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.
Consider a typical situation Jane faces. The market is focused on an upcoming US Federal Reserve decision. Jane believes that, relative to expectations, the meeting may reinforce a stronger US dollar tone. She wants to position for a possible rise in USD/JPY over the next few days.
With spot alone, her choices would be:
The challenge is that the announcement could cause a short-lived dip below support before any potential move higher, exposing her to stop-loss slippage or an early exit.
With FX options, she has two alternative approaches.
Rather than entering a full-sized leveraged spot position ahead of the event, Jane can buy a USD/JPY call option with an expiry date that covers the meeting and a few days afterwards.
At a high level:
On Saxo's FX option strategies ticket, one illustrative setup might be:
In this illustration, Jane buys a USD/JPY call option with:
At the time of the quote, USD/JPY is around 156.4, so the 100,000 notional corresponds to roughly 15.6 million JPY of underlying exposure. The option premium of 98,300 JPY is about 0.6% of that notional exposure. In other words, Jane is using a relatively small, fixed amount of capital to control a much larger FX position.
To see the trade-off versus staying long in spot, consider a simple comparison at expiry, using rounded numbers and assuming no intra-period adjustments:
These numbers are simplified and for educational purposes only. They do not reflect current market conditions, and actual option prices will depend on volatility, time to expiry and other factors. The key point for Jane is that, unlike leveraged spot, she knows in advance that the worst-case outcome on this trade is the premium she pays for the option. In both downside and upside scenarios, the long call reshapes her risk: losses are capped at the premium, while any favourable move in USD/JPY above the strike can still translate into gains, net of that cost.
In some situations Jane may already be long USD/JPY in spot from an earlier trade. She does not want to close the position, but she is concerned about potential downside during the event.
In this case, she can buy a protective USD/JPY put option:
Functionally, this acts as an insurance policy for the event period. Jane continues to hold her spot position but knows that, for the life of the option, she has defined a worst-case exit level.
On Saxo's FX option strategies ticket, the protective structure can look like this:
In this illustration, Jane is already long 100,000 USD/JPY in spot from an earlier trade. To protect that position around the event, she buys a USD/JPY put option with:
At the time of the quote, USD/JPY is around 156.3, so the 100,000 notional corresponds to roughly 15.6 million JPY of underlying exposure. The option premium of 153,400 JPY is close to 1% of that notional exposure. In effect, Jane is paying about 1% of the position's value for temporary protection through a key event.
To see the effect of the hedge, consider two simplified scenarios at expiry, using rounded numbers and assuming she keeps both positions open until then:
These numbers are simplified and for educational purposes only. They do not reflect current market conditions, and actual option prices will depend on volatility, time to expiry and other factors. The key point is that, by adding a protective put, Jane turns an open-ended downside in spot into a loss profile that is much more limited if the market moves sharply against her, while still allowing participation in potential upside, reduced by the cost of the hedge.
Adding FX options to her toolkit does not require Jane to abandon her existing style. Instead, it changes how she structures risk around key dates:
This does not guarantee positive outcomes. Jane still needs to form a view, size her positions sensibly and accept that premiums paid for options are a real cost. However, she now has a clearer framework for the maximum loss on each event-driven trade.
As Jane gains experience, she also becomes more aware of the specific characteristics and risks of FX options:
Understanding these elements helps her avoid treating options as a way to eliminate risk. Instead, she views them as a tool to reshape risk into a form she can quantify more easily.
Jane’s experience illustrates a broader point for FX spot traders who are curious about options:
Each trader’s situation is different, and FX options will not be appropriate for everyone. For those who already understand FX markets and are comfortable with leverage, they may provide an additional tool for structuring risk around the events that drive currencies.
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