Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Many investors hold assets, cash flows or savings in more than one currency. Even when the underlying investments perform well, changes in exchange rates can affect the value of the portfolio in the investor’s home currency.
This case study looks at Ken, a Swiss-based investor who thinks in Swiss francs (CHF) but holds a meaningful part of his portfolio in euros (EUR). It illustrates how FX options on EUR/CHF can help him define a worst-case exchange rate over a chosen period, without having to adjust his spot positions constantly.
Ken lives and works in Switzerland. Over the years, he has built a diversified investment portfolio that includes:
When he reviews his finances, Ken measures his progress in CHF. This means that the value of his euro assets in CHF terms depends on the EUR/CHF exchange rate. Two situations concern him in particular:
Up to now, Ken has occasionally used spot FX trades to adjust his exposure, but he finds it difficult to decide when to hedge and when to leave the currency risk open.
Ken does not want to eliminate all currency risk. He accepts that part of investing internationally is living with exchange rate movements. However, he would like to:
These objectives lead him to consider FX options as a complementary tool alongside his existing portfolio.
Ken’s main concern is that EUR/CHF might fall sharply over the coming months. To address this, he looks at buying a EUR/CHF put option with an expiry in about six months, which he can later renew if his concern extends beyond that period.
At a high level:
By buying this put option, Ken acquires the right, but not the obligation, to sell euros against Swiss francs at the strike price on or before the expiry date. If EUR/CHF falls below that strike, the value of the option can increase, helping to offset the decline in the CHF value of his euro assets. If EUR/CHF remains stable or rises, the option may expire worthless. In that case, the cost of the premium is the price Ken has paid for protection.
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.
On Saxo’s FX option strategies ticket, a protective hedge for part of Ken’s euro exposure can look like this:
In this illustration, Ken chooses to hedge 100,000 EUR of his euro-denominated assets. He buys an EUR/CHF put option with:
With spot around 0.9332, 100,000 EUR corresponds to roughly 93,300 CHF of underlying exposure. The option premium of 974 CHF is about 1% of that exposure. In effect, Ken is paying about 1% of the protected amount to lock in a worst-case exchange rate for the hedge period.
To see the impact, consider some simplified scenarios at expiry, using rounded numbers and assuming he keeps both his euro assets and the hedge until that date:
These numbers are simplified and purely for educational purposes. They do not reflect current market conditions, and actual option prices will depend on volatility, time to expiry and other factors. The key point is that, by adding a long-dated EUR/CHF put, Ken limits the damage from a large euro decline while still participating in potential euro strength, reduced only by the cost of the hedge.
Ken does not need to hedge 100% of his euro exposure. Instead, he chooses a notional size for the EUR/CHF option that corresponds to the portion of his holdings he is most concerned about. He also understands that:
By adjusting the strike and notional size, Ken can tailor both the level of protection and the cost of the hedge to his own comfort level.
After some time using simple long put options, Ken learns that there are more advanced combinations that can reduce the upfront premium in exchange for limiting potential upside. One example is a collar structure, where he might:
This approach is more complex and introduces additional obligations if the euro strengthens significantly. For that reason, Ken treats it as a later step, after he has become comfortable with how single long options behave.
As with any risk-management tool, FX options come with their own characteristics and considerations:
Ken finds it helpful to treat options as a structured way to pay for protection, rather than as a source of additional return.
Ken’s experience highlights several points that may be relevant for investors with foreign-currency assets or income:
For investors who already hold diversified portfolios and are comfortable with the basics of FX, options on currency pairs can offer an additional way to align currency risk with their long-term objectives.
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