Outrageous Predictions
Die Grüne Revolution der Schweiz: 30 Milliarden Franken-Initiative bis 2050
Katrin Wagner
Head of Investment Content Switzerland
Summary: Today, a look at the market continuing to radiate confidence that things will turn out well despite the lack of real progress or any new clarity emerging from the war in Iran or Hormuz Strait. The market enthusiasm for memory makers remains hot and key player in that space Micron is reporting after the US close today. We also look at the seven of the G10 central banks up today and tomorrow, with BoJ and ECB particularly in focus for their guidance tomorrow, but with the FOMC up later today. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Not bad! Stock IPO up 520% on its first day trading - and another 40% in late trading. Where the jobs are and aren’t in the US Trump is pushing the SAVE America Act - important setup for the Nov. midterms. Saudi to emerge a winner from the Iran War Sure, private equity is a risk for the market, but there is a much bigger one. Very bizarre dual disappearance cast that must have conspiracy theorists in knots. The SpaceX IPO - one like none before it. As noted at the top of this post, the UK can now boast of having its first meme stock, Raspberry Pi, which makes cheap computers (now less cheap due to insane rise in RAM prices) on a small board that can run Linux and do all basic PC tasks. They are enormously popular with computer enthusiasts and educators. The company IPO’ed in 2024 and growth has stalled out over the last year, making for an ugly chart until the crazy pump the stock saw in February. It looks like new punters are hoping that self starters might use Raspberry Pi’s to run the massively viral open-source agentic AI software called OpenClaw. I have yet to download or even have a look at OpenClaw, which is billed as a king of agentic AI personal assistant that runs locally on your machine and pulls data from and is able to execute tasks on well known apps. Here’s The Register with a great backgrounder and very skeptical take on the viral/meme stock moment for Raspberry Pi’s stock, together with some security warnings on whether anyone should be using OpenClaw at all because of serious security concerns. (In my book, this ironically makes a cheap, isolated Raspberry Pi “sandbox” running only limited personal apps or fake accounts the ideal system to test OpenClaw). Anyway, all of the hubbub will make for an interesting semiannual report from Raspberry Pi on 31 March. The CEO is embracing the moment.
Swarmer, a US-based maker of drone software for swarming, with an interesting AI angle as well, has had an explosive debut. Here is Saxo’s Charu Chanana with coverage.
An very cool infographic heatmap of size and change of all job descriptions defined by the BLS, HT to FTAlphaville for this one.
The Hill with coverage - interesting to see how and whether this goes down as an unpopular president tries to federalize voting standards across all states.
Shanaka Anslem Perara with thoughts on how Saudi could eclipse the UAE in many ways in the wake of this conflict.
Again, HT FTAlphaville for the link to research looking at the ballooning bank exposure to Non-bank Financial Institutions and hedge funds, possibly representing far greater market risk in the event that triggers a market dislocation (free registery).
The disappearance of two very prominent and connected people in US defense/aerospace within the last year is incredibly mysterious. Here is the basic media take about their disappearances, the first vanishing in the summer of last year, a woman with high level knowledge of an exotic alloy used in Aerospace engineering and the second her former colleague, an Air Force general who disappeared without a trace after leaving his house with only (perhaps) his gun and his wallet in a backpack. Finally, here is a probably more controversial and very deep dive.
SpaceX IPO - if this IPO goes forward at an inflated price that then collapses significantly in the ensuing months, if straight inclusion from Day One in the S&P 500 index is part of the deal, massive controversy will likely ensue. Apparently, the Nasdaq is already rewriting rules to allow rapid inclusion of said IPO in the Nasdaq 100 index.Chart of the Day - Meet the UK’s first “meme stock”