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The cracks beginning to show as we are flying blind on state of US labor market.
Podcast 21 minutes to read
Summary: The overdue US equity market correction finally arrived. Will this just prove a healthy correction or are the cracks beginning to show, pointing to something bigger afoot? It is certainly clear that the data is not giving us any real clue of the status of the US labor market after Friday's shock negative revisions to payrolls. Also on today's podcast, we discuss listed rare earth companies and an ETF, the situation in industrial and precious metals, geopolitics, critical incoming earnings, important listens and links and more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodities Strategy Ole Hansen, with Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.
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Today’s links
Stratechery.com on how to think about Figma, also as an AI play now that it has IPO’ed.
A great conversation on The Final Phase of the Debt Supercycle on the Hidden Forces podcast with Edward Chancellor, author of the widely praised book The Price of Time on the “real” history of interest rates. It is behind a (arguably low and reasonable) paywall, but may become publicly available like other episodes of the Grant Williams / Hidden Forces collabs.
Forbes: ChatGPT is coming for Excel. One of the most profitable monopolies of all time is Microsoft’s office package. Could AI be its undoing?
On rare earths, we’ve talked about MP Materials before, but this name I have never heard of cropped up - Ramaco - a company that is looking to extract rare earths associated with coal deposits.
Finally, also behind paywall, FT article on the AI job cuts accelerating.
Today’s chart: Apple
I changed my mind on what to include today - decided to go with a weekly Apple chart after Friday’s ugly sell-off after Thursday’s earnings report, likewise generating an ugly weekly candlestick for the stock. Perhaps worth noting here that Apple stock only closed below its 200-week moving average (the dark rising MA on the chart) once since 2009, in a two-week episode in 2016 (at a split-adjusted price near 22.50 then - revenues for 2026 are only expected to be about twice 2016 revenues, by the way, and the company shows little growth now relative to then…it’s nearly all riding on hopes for growth in the services side of the business).
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