Morning Brew September 25 2026

Good morning.

I will be on holiday for the next six days. The next Morning Brew will be published on 6 or 7 October. Trade safely!

High oil prices and soaring yields remain the main focus, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2004. The U.S. 10-year yield remains below the high reached during the global financial crisis, but not by much.

Brent crude surged to USD 108 per barrel on Thursday after an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader suggested that the conflict with the United States could extend into the Indian Ocean, before partially paring gains. Oil has been the primary macro driver this week, with energy-led inflation fears the key catalyst behind the global bond selloff. This morning, Brent is trading at USD 105.66.

U.S. equities ended the day little changed on hopes of mediation in the Middle East. The S&P 500 lost 0.02%, the Nasdaq rose 0.01%, and the Dow fell 0.31%.

Meta Platforms climbed 4.5%, one day after the social-media company unveiled a small handheld gadget for use with its recently launched AI assistant. Oracle fell 3.5% after a report said the company had issued a force-majeure notice concerning a New Mexico data centre. Shares of Blue Owl, the project’s developer, also fell sharply.

European equities fell for a second consecutive session on Thursday. The Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 0.5% to 636.43, the DAX fell 0.6% to 25,266.53—its lowest level since 24 July—the FTSE 100 declined 0.2% to 10,679.99, and the SMI slipped 0.1%.

The S&P 500 has traded at just under 19 times expected earnings this week, its lowest valuation since 2023, according to LSEG data.

The USD Index is at 101.25, with EUR/USD at 1.1375, GBP/USD at 1.3250 and USD/JPY at 158.15. Gold, silver and Bitcoin remain under pressure at 4,260, 63.30 and 84,000, respectively.

There was little tangible outcome from the U.S.–China summit or the UN General Assembly. The focus remains on the Middle East, the resulting economic fallout and the health of the AI trade.

The German government will vote on reducing fuel taxes to support the economy.

With oil prices elevated and the global economy running at full steam to build AI infrastructure, yields are unlikely to cool, and central banks may be forced to raise rates. At their next meetings, the Fed, ECB, RBA and Bank of England are expected to hike, while the odds for the Swiss National Bank’s December meeting are roughly 50/50.

The past week can only be considered a failure for the Trump administration, which is further than ever from achieving its key goals and enters the midterms from a weaker position. Will there be decisive action to reach a resolution in the Middle East, or a diesel export ban to lower energy costs?

Trade carefully.

Friday, 25 September 2026

Macro: Germany GfK consumer confidence; France consumer confidence; Spain final Q2 GDP; euro-area M3 money supply and private-sector credit.

Monday, 28 September 2026
Macro: Italy non-EU trade balance; U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing survey and New York Fed public-policy expectations survey.

Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Macro: Germany preliminary CPI; euro-area economic sentiment and final consumer confidence; U.S. JOLTS job openings, Conference Board consumer confidence and Dallas Fed Texas retail outlook survey.
Central banks: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision.
Corporate earnings: Carnival.

Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Macro: Germany unemployment and import prices; France preliminary CPI, producer prices and consumer spending; UK quarterly GDP; U.S. ADP employment report, third estimate of Q2 GDP, personal income and spending, PCE inflation and Dallas Fed energy survey; month- and quarter-end flows.
Central banks: ECB Governing Council non-monetary policy meeting.
Corporate earnings: Micron Technology.

Thursday, 1 October 2026
Macro: Final manufacturing PMIs for Germany, France, the euro area and the UK; euro-area bank lending rates; U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, construction spending and initial jobless claims.
Corporate earnings: Accenture, McCormick and Nike.

Friday, 2 October 2026
Macro: Euro-area preliminary September inflation; euro-area Q2 balance of payments and sector accounts; U.S. nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and factory orders.

Monday, 5 October 2026
Macro: Final services and composite PMIs for Germany, France, the euro area and the UK; euro-area producer prices; U.S. ISM Services PMI and final S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs.

Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Macro: Germany factory orders; euro-area money-market and competitiveness statistics; U.S. trade balance and New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations.
Corporate earnings: Constellation Brands.