Morning Brew September 25 2025

Good Morning 

As I will be going on holiday for three weeks tomorrow right after the PCE release, please find the key economic releases for October below.

US Equities had their second negative day in what I am tempted to call lackluster trading, but the volumes are astonishingly high. The Dow lost 0.4%, the S&P 500 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. An agreement between the US and the EU lets the GER40 rise this morning. Cars will fall under a 15% tariff from August 1 – watch car shares.

10-year Yields in the US are a tad higher at 4.14. 4.20 is the next key level. The USD Index is higher at 97.82, and EURUSD is at 1.1745, GBPUSD at 1.3450, and USDJPY at 148.70. Gold and Silver seem to be taking a break at high levels, trading at 3735 and 43.90, respectively. Bitcoin fell to 111600.

Traders are looking for the next key driver heading into Q4, and it is not obvious what it will be:

• Will Q3 earnings justify the current high valuations?
• Will the PCE tomorrow confirm the Fed's focus on employment, or will it force attention to inflation?
• Will the US economy continue in the sweet spot that allows the Fed to cut rates without entering a recession?
• Will Russia continue to harass NATO only, or are we heading into a confrontation?
• Any surprises by the Trump administration?

These questions will most likely not be answered today. Focus will be on the Swiss National Bank - even if any action would be a massive surprise. US Durable Goods orders and the initial jobless claims could be interesting if they deviate from expectations. Key for the week will be the Fed's favorite inflation measurement, the PCE, tomorrow.

Trade safely.

Thursday September 25

• Swiss SNB Decision
• US Durable Goods Orders
• Initial Jobless Claims
• Speakers: Goolspee, Williams, Daly,

Friday September 26

• US PCE Deflator
• Canada GDP
• University of Michigan Consumer Conficdence
• Speakers: Baqrkin
• Erik goes on Holiday

Sep 30 Tue UK GDP, Swiss KOF, DE Unemployment Consumer confidence.

Oct 1 Wed: International PMI, EU inflation

Oct 2 Thu: Eurozone - Unemployment Rate

Oct 2 Thu: US - Initial Jobless Claims

Oct 3 Fri: International PMI US - Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, Canada - Employment Data

Oct 7 Tue: Canada - Ivey PMI, IUS International Trade

Oct 8 Wed: Germany, Industrial Production (Germany

Oct 9 Thu: US - Initial Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories

Oct 10 Fri: Canada - Unemployment Rate, US University of Michigan

Oct 13 Mon: Japan - PPI

Oct 14 Tue: Germany, - ZEW, Inflation, UK Employment data

Oct 15 Wed: China CPI, PPI, US - CPI

Oct 16 Thu: UK GDP Eurozone  Trade Balance (Eurozone), Philly Fed, Initial Claims, Retail Sales

Oct 17 Fri: Eurozone Inflation, US Industrial Production,

Oct 20 Mon: China Rate Decision

Oct 21 Tue: Canada - CPI

Oct 22 Wed: UK - CPI

Oct 23 Thu: US - Initial Claims, Home Sales

Oct 24 Fri: UK - Retail Sales

Oct 24 Fri: Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, International PMI, Eurozone - Markit Manufacturing PMI

Oct 27 Mon: Germany Ifo Index, US Durable Goods orders,

Oct 28 Tue: US - Consumer Confidence

Oct 29 Wed: Australia CPI US & Canada Rate Decision

Oct 30 Thu: Eurozone GDP, Unemployment, Rate Decision US GDP,

Oct 30 Thu: Canada, Germany - GDP (Canada, m/m), Unemployment (Germany)

Oct 31 Fri: Japan CPI