Morning Brew October 28 2026

Good morning.

 The Federal Reserve’s decision, earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet, and renewed Middle East risks are the key drivers today. Technology and AI shares led yesterday’s equity rally, while the U.S. 10-year yield is back above 5% and oil is rising.

The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 19:00 CET, followed by the press conference at 19:30. Both are an hour earlier than usual because the time difference with New York is currently five hours.

Analysts and traders see only a minute chance of anything other than a hold. The key question is how hawkish Kevin Warsh will sound at the press conference. The Bank of Canada announces its decision at 14:45 CET and is expected to raise rates.

Microsoft and Alphabet also report earnings—perhaps today’s main event.

South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix said it would return about USD 75 billion to shareholders this year after quarterly profit jumped more than sevenfold. Demand for AI infrastructure continues to drive up memory-chip prices.

The Nvidia supplier said its HBM and DRAM chips are sold out until 2029, with demand for high-bandwidth memory twice what it can supply. It expects the chip shortage to continue through 2030.

Jio Platforms shares rose 21.36% in pre-opening trading ahead of their debut on the BSE.

Visa V.N reported higher fourth-quarter profit as customers continued spending on travel, dining and shopping.

The world’s largest payment processor earned USD 6,000 million, or USD 3.19 per share, in the three months ended 30 September, compared with USD 5,100 million, or USD 2.62 per share, a year earlier.

Boeing reported a third-quarter loss of USD 0.26 per share as challenges in its commercial-aircraft division overshadowed stronger margins elsewhere in the company.

General Motors will transfer its stock-exchange listing to Nasdaq on 17 November 2026. Its common shares will remain listed on the NYSE through 16 November.

UBS reported third-quarter net profit of USD 2,690 million, up 8% year-on-year and roughly in line with the USD 2,710 million expected in a company-provided consensus forecast.

Proposed capital rules for UBS are being debated in a parliamentary committee and are expected to reach the lower house in December. The Swiss upper house last month proposed rules that UBS indicated were unacceptable.

UBS’s chairman has warned that the bank would need to carefully consider its future in Switzerland if capital requirements are too harsh. Some shareholders have called for it to leave the country.

Deutsche Bank reported a 2% increase in third-quarter profit, defying expectations of a decline. Strength in its retail and corporate divisions offset lower investment-banking revenue. The shares are indicated 2% higher.

U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.8% month-on-month in September 2026, beating the 1.5% forecast. Transportation orders jumped 4.6%, including a 28.4% surge in civilian aircraft. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.5%, while those excluding defence increased 2.2%. Core capital-goods orders, which exclude defence and aircraft, rose 0.5%.

U.S. equities rallied on Tuesday, led by technology and AI shares. The S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7,723, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.18% to 26,478 and the Russell 2000 advanced 1.16% to 2,819. The Dow was essentially flat, adding 0.03% to 52,378. The SOX semiconductor index surged 3.6%, its best session in more than a month. SoFi Technologies jumped 13.4%, Credo Technology gained 10.8%, Astera Labs rose 10.5% and Cerebras Systems added 10.1%. Boeing plunged 10.69%, its worst one-day decline in six years, while Coca-Cola fell 1.6% despite beating earnings estimates and raising its full-year outlook. After hours, NXP Semiconductors lost 7.5% on weaker-than-expected revenue guidance. Logitech fell 7.0% after warning that a semiconductor supplier’s facility shutdown would reduce third-quarter sales by USD 70–80 million.

European equities were broadly higher, supported by the AI and technology rally. The DAX rose 0.71% to 25,591, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.79% to 6,165 and the CAC 40 added 0.51% to 7,887. The FTSE 100 bucked the trend, falling 0.75% to 10,687 as Reckitt Benckiser dropped as much as 7.9% after cutting its full-year sales forecast following a disruption to Lysol manufacturing. Mercedes-Benz cut its profit guidance, joining BMW and Volkswagen in citing a deteriorating Chinese market. Ferretti fell as much as 9.6% after cutting profitability guidance. Alfa Laval edged higher after orders substantially exceeded expectations, driven by demand from data centres and semiconductor companies.

The USD Index rose to 102.45 as the U.S. 10-year yield moved back above 5%. France’s yield is at 4.90%, the UK at 5.34%, Germany at 3.33% and Japan at 2.82%. EUR/USD fell to 1.115, GBP/USD slipped below 1.33 to 1.3280 and USD/JPY rose to 157.80. The RBNZ unexpectedly kept rates on hold in a 4–3 vote, citing global uncertainty. Only two of 25 forecasters had expected a hold rather than a hike. The New Zealand dollar fell as much as 1.7% to 55.86 U.S. cents. No new projections were released, and the governor is due to speak at 15:00 local time.

Gold defended the important 4,000 support level, climbed to 4,070 and is now trading around 4,030. Silver is at 53.80.

Brent crude is up around 1.5% to USD 115 a barrel. The United States has told several Gulf Arab nations to prepare for a possible short, intense military campaign against Iran after the U.S. midterm elections.President Trump is reportedly leaning towards a large post-election attack on Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites, although he has not made a decision.The U.S. military is moving a Patriot system from Texas to reinforce missile defences and has moved troops off vulnerable bases in preparation.

Expect strong moves today, with the Fed decision and press conference, Microsoft and Alphabet earnings, and developments in the Middle East setting the tone.

Trade safely

Wednesday, 28 October 2026

Central banks: Federal Reserve rate decision and press conference; Bank of Canada rate decision.
Corporate earnings: UBS, Deutsche Bank, Airbus and GSK; Unilever trading statement; Microsoft  and Alphabet.

Thursday, 29 October 2026
Macro: U.S. advance Q3 GDP, personal income and spending, PCE inflation and initial jobless claims.
Central banks: ECB rate decision and press conference; Bank of Japan meeting begins.
Corporate earnings: Amazon Shell, TotalEnergies and ING; Eli Lilly, Mastercard and Merck.

Friday, 30 October 2026
Macro: Euro-area flash Q3 GDP and preliminary October inflation; U.S. Q3 Employment Cost Index; month-end flows.
Central banks: Bank of Japan rate decision and Outlook Report.
Corporate earnings: Sanofi, AstraZeneca and BP; ExxonMobil, Chevron and AbbVie.