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Morning Brew October 24 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Lot`s of headlines ahead of the US CPI
Good Morning:
As we gear up for today's CPI release, the headlines surrounding Trump are keeping the market buzzing:
- Trump is set to meet with China’s President Xi next week during his Asian tour of Malaysia, Korea, and Japan.
- All trade talks with Canada have been terminated following a controversial anti-tariff ad featuring Ronald Reagan.
- Despite concerns, federal agents will not be deployed to San Francisco, confirmed by both the U.S. President and the city's mayor.
- Trump has pardoned Changpeng Zhao, the convicted founder of Binance.
In China, there are plans to boost government investment in public welfare and significantly raise the household consumption percentage of GDP over the next five years.
On the U.S. equities front, stocks traded positively as about 85% of companies reporting have exceeded expectations. The news of Trump’s upcoming meeting with Xi has fueled overnight optimism in the markets, with the US500 at 6751, the US30 at 46778, and the Nasdaq 100 at 25176.
The GER40 has been stagnant, up 24.8% year-to-date but only 0.05% within the last three months.
Tesla bounced back to close in the green at 448 after an initial earnings-related slump. Intel outperformed due to cost reductions, while IBM slipped 0.9% following earnings. Molina Health took a 17.5% hit after a cut in expectations. T-Mobile dropped 3%, whereas Dow jumped by 13% and Honeywell gained 7%.
Oil companies had a robust day fueled by rising oil prices, driven by new sanctions against Russia.
The Trump administration is exploring partnerships with quantum computing companies, sending stocks soaring.
In the bond market, U.S. yields edged higher with the 10-year at 4%. The USD Index stabilized at 99.04, while EUR/USD regained 1.16, GBP/USD dropped to 1.3318, and USD/JPY gained to to 152.95.
Precious metals are holding with gold at 4115 and silver at 48.65, while Bitcoin climbed back over 110k. Oil remains a point of interest, rising due to new sanctions against Russia and pressure on India to halt purchases. The Trump-Xi meeting sparks hope for a trade pickup.
Today, we anticipate PMI data from Europe and the U.S., and the U.S. CPI will be released, one of the first high-impact data points post-lockdown. The CPI release is at 14:30, with expectations set at 3.1% for both CPI and Core CPI.
Upcoming Events:
- Oct 24, Friday brings a host of releases including UK Retail Sales, Japan CPI, International PMI, Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI, as well as U.S. CPI & PMI. Keep an eye out for earnings from P&G.