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Morning Brew October 21 2026
Summary: Earnings, Oil and Rumors make marktes
Good morning.
Earnings and rumors are driving volatility, with today the busiest earnings day of the week as Meta and Tesla report. Traders will be looking for details after Elon Musk called a merger between Tesla and SpaceX “a good idea”, while headlines from the Middle East continue to move oil, equities, yields and currencies.
Oil remains driven by news and rumours, with broader markets following its lead. Reports of an imminent U.S.–Iran agreement sent crude down 3% yesterday afternoon before proving false. Equities, yields and currencies all reacted sharply. The Wallstreeet Journal reports theis morning that more oil is coming out of the middle east than before the war.
The U.S. administration appears increasingly eager to secure a win ahead of the midterms, with Donald Trump’s approval ratings at their lowest both for him and for any sitting U.S. president. Attention seems to have shifted towards Ukraine, where pressure to reach a resolution is mounting. The shutdown of who ordered the shutdown / slowdown of Starlink in Ukraine is getting a great deal of attention – Elon Musk himself or did he act on orders of Donald Trump?
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday after what a U.S. official described as “constructive” talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Norway. Trump said it was time for Ukraine to end the war.
France will reinforce police with troops for further protests planned on Saturday. The government acknowledged failures in its response to last weekend’s violence, with Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu promising a “massive” deployment.
U.S. equities closed mixed as strong earnings offset AI credit concerns. The Dow rose 1% to 52,496 and the S&P 500 gained 0.3% to 7,713, led by healthcare, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.02% to 26,425. Equifax surged 11.3% and Eli Lilly gained 3.5%, while GM fell 7.6% after CEO Mary Barra warned of “intensifying” challenges and narrowed guidance. European equities were relatively calm, with the Stoxx 600 moving just 0.1%.
SpaceX rose 8% after hours on strong earnings and news that special committees are discussing a possible Tesla merger. Revenue reached USD 14,580 million versus USD 12,720 million expected, while adjusted earnings per share of USD 0.45 beat the USD 0.13 forecast. Starlink revenue rose 69% and AI revenue reached USD 7,560 million, underscoring the growing importance of connectivity and computing.
Netflix fell around 6% after hours as weaker guidance overshadowed an earnings beat. Earnings per share reached USD 0.87 versus USD 0.82 expected, while revenue rose 12% to USD 12,870 million and the operating margin reached 34.6%. Full-year revenue guidance of USD 51,100 million is near the bottom of its previous range, and the advertising target was cut to roughly USD 2,700 million from USD 3,000 million.
ABB fell 5% to CHF 70.96 despite strong results. Orders jumped 40% to a record USD 12,055 million, revenue grew 14% and the operational EBITA margin widened to 20.8% from 19.2%. Triple-digit growth in data-centre orders highlighted robust AI-infrastructure demand, an increasingly important structural growth driver.
The U.S. dollar weakened against all G10 currencies at its session low. USD/JPY is at 158.34 this morning, up 0.1% on the day, after trading in a tight 200-pip range over the past 20 days. Analysts say the range increasingly resembles a managed currency, with a Fed rate hike still the clearest catalyst for a break higher. GBP/USD is at 1.3374, holding above its 21-day moving average for the first time since late August and reinforcing the near-term upside. Sterling was among Tuesday’s strongest G10 currencies. EUR/USD is at 1.1222.
Gold is trading near 4,130 and silver at 57.60, while Bitcoin is near 83,000.
Brent crude reached a five-month intraday high above USD 111 a barrel yesterday before reversing sharply to settle at USD 108.79, down 0.69%. A diplomat confirmed that reports of an imminent U.S.–Iran peace deal were inaccurate. Brent is trading at USD 110.40 this morning.
Today’s focus is on Tesla and Meta earnings, any details of a possible SpaceX–Tesla merger and efforts to reach agreements in Ukraine or the Middle East.
The outlook remains headline-driven: shifting reports and rumours can trigger sharp moves at any time.
Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Macro: UK CPI; New Zealand CPI.
Corporate earnings: Meta Platforms, Tesla, SAP, IBM, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Abbott Laboratories, Danaher, AT&T and NextEra Energy.
Thursday, 22 October 2026
Macro: U.S. housing starts and initial jobless claims.
Corporate earnings: Procter & Gamble, Union Pacific and Western Digital.
Friday, 23 October 2026
Macro: UK retail sales; flash manufacturing and services PMIs for Germany, the euro area, the UK and the United States.