Morning Brew November 5 2025

Good Morning,

We are seeing some caution in markets. CEOs from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have flagged concerns about potential drawdowns due to high valuations. Reflecting this, the Dow declined by 0.5%, the S&P 500 by 1.2%, and the Nasdaq by 2%, while the VIX—a major volatility indicator—rose to 19. Uber took a hit, falling 5.1% after missing expectations, with Spotify and Shopify also down by 2.3% and 6.9%, respectively. Palantir ended the day with an 8% drop. Trading volumes remained unexpectedly low, falling below average.

In Asia, markets followed suit, with the Kospi losing as much as 6.1% and the Nikkei down by 4.6%. Meanwhile, GER40 is at 23,790. The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell by 9.1% to 43.9 in November 2025, marking its lowest point since June 2024, and missing expectations. Following a mixed day in the U.S. markets—where the Dow was down 0.5%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.5%—we're observing a risk-off sentiment today without a clear trigger. It seems Palantir's performance failed to boost market confidence, despite exceeding expectations.

European firms are expected to report growth of 4.3% in Q3 according to LSEG Data, above the 0.4% increase analysts expected a week ago so sentiment is improving fast.

 The US Dollar has gained strength amid this risk-off environment, pushing the USD index past the 100 mark. Current forex rates are EUR/USD at 1.1490, GBP/USD at 1.3025, and USD/JPY at 153.47. Meanwhile, gold and silver are rebounding today after declining yesterday, with prices at 3,962 and 47.80, up 0.9% and 1.4%, respectively. Bitcoin experienced a dip below 100k yesterday before attracting buyers again.The British Pund is worth keeping an eye on as we are heading into he Budget discussions were tax hikes are expected and the BoE sets rates tomorrow.

Wegovy-maker Novo Nordisk sales growth of 15%, beating forecasts this morning.

I expect news from the US Politics to drive markets today, the Democrats had a great day yesterday winning the mayoral election in New York but also the governor seats in Virginia and New Jersey, California approved a constitutional amendment suggested by democrats and Pennsylvania kept three Democrats on the state Supreme Court. This makes the day a fairly complete loss for Donald Trump. He is under pressure already due the complete lack of progress in resolving the  lockdown,  the Epstein Files not progressing and as a newest episode of possible graft the pardon of the former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao.

Yesterday he posted a rather curious rant against the Filibuster… Let us see what happens today.

 The overall driving question is if Risk sentiment recovers and we see a Christmas rally – November is usually the strongest month of the year – or if the continuing worries that AI is a bubble dampen sentiment.

The next few days, Equities will see an inflow of ETF savings plans – let us see if it turns indexes higher again.

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

• DE Industrial Orders
• Global PMI
  Novo Nordisk, McDonalds, Robingood, Applovin, Qualcomm, ARM, Snap,

Thursday, November 6, 2025

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Meeting (7:00 UK time)
• Eurozone Retail Sales (September)
• Initial Jobless Claims (US weekly)
  AstraZeneca, Warner Bros. Moderna, thetradedesk, Airbnb

Friday, November 7, 2025

• US Nonfarm Payrolls
• US Unit Labour Costs QoQ Preliminary
• China Balance of Trade
  Constellation., Wendy`s,