Morning Brew May 26 2025

Good morning,

Remember US and UK have a market holiday today.

Donald Trump ended hopes of easing tensions in the trade war on Friday, causing stocks to fall broadly.  Trump “suggested” general tariff of 50% on the EU and said he would like to see 25% tariffs on all IPhones no made in the US.

Over the weekend he reversed his statement again after a call with Ursula von der Leyen, delaying the 50% until July 9^th. If there are any employees at the SEC left to conduct an investigation into insider trading, they must be having a field day.

The Dow lost 0.6%, S&P 500 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1%, for the week, the Dow lost 2.5%, the S&P 500 fell 2.6%, and the Nasdaq shed 2.5%. The Dax lost 1.5% to close at 23630 officially. Apple gave up 3% the Vix surged higher while volumes were in line with the average. Trumps reversal of the tariff threats let Equities rise again with the Dax Future 1.5% up again.

Highlight of this  coming week will likely be the Nvidia earnings, at least of the planned events. Nvidia is the last of the magnificent 7 to release earnings and this release will be a critical input for the health of the AI market. On Friday, the stock closed at 131, down 2.2% year to date, putting it`s performance into the mid-range of the mag 7. Meta is up 7% fairly quietly, Microsoft +6.8% while Apple is down 22%, Tesla -16 and Amazon and Alphabet -8.4% and -11% respectively.

Yields retreated a little but remain firmly in the “uncomfortable” zone, currently the 10 year is 4.51 and the  30 is 5.03.

The past week was a great week for precious Metals with Platinum up almost 10%, Gold up 4% and Silver 3.5%the XAUXAG ratio remains above 100 with Gold at 3357 and Silver 33.48 at the close. The USD Index falls to below 99, EURUSD is above 1.14 and GBPUSD is 1.3585. USDJPY and USDCHF are 142.60 and  0.82.

We are looking at an odd weak coming up: We start with a US Holiday, then the highlight of the week likely to be the Nvidia Earnings on Wednesday after the market close, Thursday is a Holiday in parts of Europe and Friday, the US PCE, the most important inflation measure will be released. Friday is also the last trading day of Ma

As we saw Friday and today we need to expect comments out of the Whitehouse to drive markets at any point in time.-

Trade safely.

Monday, May 26

- Japan: Leading Indicators (March Final)

- Central bank meetings: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Bank of Korea

Tuesday, May 27

- US: Durable Goods Orders (April, Preliminary)

- US: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (March)

- US: Consumer Confidence (May)

- France, Italy, Spain: Preliminary May inflation data

Wednesday, May 28

- US: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May), 10:00 AM[7]

- Major US earnings: NVIDIA (NVDA, AMC), Salesforce (CRM, AMC), Synopsys (SNPS, AMC)[5]

Thursday, May 29

- US: GDP (Q1, Second Estimate)

- US: Initial Jobless Claims

- US: Pending Home Sales (April)

- Canada: Current Account

- Japan: Unemployment Rate (April), 7:30 PM; Industrial Production (April, Preliminary),

Friday, May 30

- US: Personal Income & Spending (April),

- US: PCE Inflation (April)[1]

- US: Wholesale Inventories (April, Preliminary),

- US: Chicago PMI (May),

- Canada: GDP (Q1)

 Major Earnings (Selected Highlights)

 Date          Company            Timing   

--------------------------------------------

 May 27 (Tue)  HP (HPQ)           AMC      

 May 28 (Wed)  NVIDIA (NVDA)      AMC      

 May 28 (Wed)  Salesforce (CRM)   AMC      

 May 28 (Wed)  Synopsys (SNPS)    AMC