Morning Brew May 20 2025

Good morning,

US Indexes changed little yesterday, taking Moody`s downgrade in stride and one is tempted to say it was a fairly boring day. The most interesting items were TXNM Energy and Novavax up 7% and 15%, and I am astonished that the volume was 2 billion shares above average at 19.4 Billion. The overriding question remains if the S&P manage to test all time highs.

The Dax traded friendly after earlier losses driven by gains in Siemens Energy (+3.6%), Münchener Rück (+1.8%), Rheinmetall (+1.7%), Continental (+1.7%), and E.ON (+1.6%) A close above the 24000 would boost sentiment.

US Yields retreated a little and failed to breach the key resistances at 5 for the 30 year and 4.5 for the 10 – we are currently at 4.91 and 4.45.

The USD traded in decently large swings as traders tried to make sense of the downgrade. The USD Index is 100.30, EURUSD is back above 1.12 at 1.1240. USDJPY 144.70 and GBPUSD 1.3370.

USDCHF is trading at 0.8340 Martin Schlegel stated the SNB could not rule out negative rates and that the Inflation outlook was very uncertain. He also stated, the SNB only intervened in FX markets to meet their mandate not to achieve a competitive advantage. He also said there was no alternative than investing in US treasuries.

Gold and Silver are trading sideways, Platinum has broken above the 1000 USD / ounce, an interesting technical level on news of Chinese demand.

It is noteworthy hat Fed speakers Jefferson, Williams, and Kashkari as well as JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon focused on the uncertainty from tariffs ont eh economy.

Donald Trump stated Russia and Ukraine would  immediately start negotiations for a ceasefire

Nippon Steel plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel's operations 

The political arena HomeDepot earnings and  technical levels are likely the key drivers today.  Sharp moves are likely at any point in time, try not to get complacent.

Tuesday, May 20

- Economic:

-   - China Rate decision

  - Canada: CPI (Apr)

  - Eurozone: Consumer confidence

  - Fed speakers: Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Hammack, Daly

- Earnings:

  - Home Depot (HD)

  - Amer Sports (AS)

  - Bilibili (BILI)

  - Eagle Materials (EXP)

  - Viking Holdings (VIK)

  - Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

  - Toll Brothers (TOL)

Wednesday, May 21

- Economic:

  - Japan: Trade Balance)

  - UK: CPI (Apr)

  - US: Treasury 20-year auction, Fed speakers: Barkin, Bowman, Williams[2][5][7]

- Earnings:

  - Baidu (BIDU)

- Target (TGT)

 - WIX (WIX)

- Zoom (ZM)

- Snowflake (SNOW)

 Thursday, May 22

- Economic:

  - International PMI

- US: Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Existing Home Sales (Apr)

  - Japan: Machine Tool Orders (Apr)

  - Japan: CPI (Apr)[2][5][7]

- Earnings:

  - Ralph Lauren (RL)

  - Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)

  - Autodesk (ADSK)

  - Copart (CPRT)

  - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

  - Intuit (INTU)

  - Workday (WDAY)[6]

Friday, May 23

- Economic:

- Japan CPI 

- Germany GDP

- US: New Home Sales (Apr)

  - Canada: Retail Sales (Mar)

  - UK: Retail Sales (Apr)[2][5][7]

- Earnings:

  - Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)