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Morning Brew Julne 5 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: ECB Will cut rates Trump will be on edge.
Good morning,
Another busy couple of days ahead:
Donalds Trump negotiating powers seem to hit walls as there is no progress in Ukraine and he described Chinese President as very hard to deal with.
Without progress in these two key points, he will likely find another target to lash out against – With him meeting Friedrich Merz today, the EU could be a likely target, also the Fed will be is focus if the ECB does cut rates as expected.
Yesterday, after the ADP employment came lower than expected, DJT immediately called for lower rates.
Elon Musk doubled down on his opposition against the “Big Beautiful bill” and asked his followers to fight the bill.
US 10 year yields declined to 4.36, EURUSD is trading at 1.1405, USDJPY 143 and GBPUSD 1.3545. Gold and Silver are 3363 and 34.45, Platinum is 1092.
US Equities were trading calm in low volume, all three indexes ended within 0.5% as traders try to understand what to focus on and what the next driver will be.
DollarTree, Tesla and Crowdstrike were significant losers, Dollartree and Crowdstrike on earnings, Tesla on falling sales and worries Elons continued political exposure will not help his companies.
Dax remains strong on domestic politics – will we reach 25k soon?
Today the key event is likely to be the ECB Rate decision and the press conference. The clear expectation is a cut by 25 bps. It will be the 8th cut in the current cycle and will bring rates to 2%, at least one further cut is expected by year end, a shift in this expectation will be what moves markets. Rate traders are betting on 55 bps cuts until year end.
US Initial jobless claims may find some attention after the strong disappointment in the ADP number. The US Trade deficit is usually not the center of attention but given the current trade disputes, it may well be important. Next big data release will be the US Non-Farm Payroll tomorrow for insight into the labor market.
Thursday, June 5
- Eurozone: ECB Interest Rate Decision (expected 25bp cut) & Inflation
- Germany: Industrial Production (April)
- US: Weekly Jobless Claims
- US Trade Balance
- Canada: Trade Balance (April)
Friday, June 6
- DE Trade
- UK Houseprices
- EU GDP
- US: Non-Farm Payrolls (May), Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings (May)
- Canada: Employment Report (May)