Morning Brew June 4 2025

Good morning,

The mood in the stock market is better than headlines suggest:

• The additional 25% tariffs on steel are in effect (except for the UK which has an agreement already in place)
• Chinese export restrictions on minerals cause German car maker to issue an urgent warning.
• Elon Musk called the “bid, Beautiful Bill” a "disgusting abomination" that will increase the federal deficit.
• The US expects best offers today to move ahead with the trade agreements.

Data yesterday was mixed: EU inflation came below the ECB`s two percent target of two percent yesterday, a cut tomorrow is now priced in with a probability of 99%.

Hopes for trade talks between the US, China and Europe caused a glass half full energy in Equities, Frankfurt's DAX rose 0.7% and is now at 24150, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Dow added 214 points, and the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.8%, with Nvidia leading a 2.8% rally that briefly made it the most valuable publicly traded company.

The Euro lost against the USD to 1.1370, USDJPY rose to 144.25, GBPUSD 1.3515. Gold and Silver gave up some of Mondays gains but are holding at 3350 and 34.45. Ole points out: Gold and silver rallied through key technical resistance levels on Monday in a move that was bolstered by a weaker US dollar and renewed demand for alternative investments amid rising geopolitical and tariff tensions. 

Bitcoin and Ethereum remain at an inconclusive 105500 and 2640

Charu sees an interesting case for nuclear energy, Meta secured the full production of a nuclear power plant for 20 years

Key points:

• AI and data center demand are supercharging interest in nuclear energy as stable, carbon-free baseload power regains favor.
• Policy support is accelerating, with the U.S. preparing to invoke the Defense Production Act and fast-track reactor approvals, while global players from China to France accelerate nuclear expansion.
• Investor momentum is strong across the nuclear value chain, but risks remain—from overvalued early-stage stocks to project delays, cost overruns, and lingering public skepticism.

Today is likely to bring some volatility as we are expecting trade news, the Feds Beige Book and Global PMI: France 9:45, Germany 9:55 and the EU at 10, UK at 10:30 and US at 15:45 and 16:00

Trade safely!!

Wednesday, June 4

- Eurozone: Unemployment Rate (April)

- Germany: Industrial Orders (April)

- Global PMI

- Beige book

- Canada: Bank of Canada Rate Decision

Thursday, June 5

- Eurozone: ECB Interest Rate Decision (expected 25bp cut) & Inflation

- Germany: Industrial Production (April)

- US: Weekly Jobless Claims

- US Trade Balance

- Canada: Trade Balance (April)

Friday, June 6

- DE Trade

- UK Houseprices

- EU GDP

- US: Non-Farm Payrolls (May), Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings (May)

- Canada: Employment Report (May)

Earnings this week:

• Wednesday: Dollar Tree, Sprinklr, REV Group, TechTarget, VersaBank, Thor Industries, Webster Bank, Genesco, MongoDB, PVH, Five Below, Planet, ChargePoint, Verint, Bark, Greif, Descartes, Tillys
• Thursday: Ciena, Cracker Barrel, Lands' End, Brown-Forman, Toro, Hello Group, Victoria's Secret, Waterdrop, BitFufu, Broadcom, DocuSign, Lululemon, Rubrik, Samsara, ServiceTitan, Torrid, Petco, Zumiez, Braze
• Friday: G-III Apparel Group, ABM, FuelCell Energy