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Morning Brew January 16 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk sentiment surges after there is no negative surprise in the CPI
Good morning,
The market move caused by the US CPI was a lot larger than the headline had let believe. The CPI was in line on an annual basis, the monthly 0.1% higher than expected, the core came 0.% lower on the annual reading. NY Fed Manufacturing came at -12.6 vs 3% expected.
Ten year yields fell to 4.65 and the annual end rate for 2025 is now 36 basis points below the current level – this causes a significant relief rally:
The US Dollar lost ground, the USD Index is at 109.09 EURUSD 1.0280 GBPUSD 1.2210 and USDJPY 156!
Bitcoin is back to testing the 100k at 99350, Gold and Silver rose to 2695 and 30.65. The 10 Year UK yield fell 20 basis points off the high.
In Equities, the Dow rose 1.65%, the S&P 500 1.83% and the Nasdaq 2.45%, the big IS Banks reported positively and could gain massively: Citi, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo all gained more than 6%, JP Morgan "only" 2%.
Headlines:
- A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been announced starting Sunday.
- TSMC reported ta profit rise by 57%
- Atomic Power is gaining in popularity globally
- China is interested in buying the two factories VW is closing
- TikTok`s fate from Sunday is unclear.
- Hindenburg Research, the flamboyant short seller will be shut down.
From here the main focus will be on the transfer of power int eh US on Monday, pls remember that due to Martin Luther King Day, Monday is a market holiday in the US!
Todays Data should only be really market moving if there is a massive surprise, investors in the UK or trading the Pound should keep an eye on the UK GDP at 8.
Please find the q4 outlooks here:
Macro outlook SaxoTraderGO Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
Equity outlook SaxoTraderGO The ride just got rougher
FX Outlook SaxoTraderGO Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
Commodity outlook SaxoTraderGO A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
China outlook SaxoTraderGO The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Key Data:
Thursday
- Data AU Employment Data, Germany Inflation, UK GDP, IT CPI. Initial Jobless claims, Retail Sales, Philly Fed
- Earnings: tsmc, Bank of America. US Bancorp, Morgan Stanley, all before open
-
Friday
- Data China Retail Sales, GDP. EU Harmonized Inflation US Industrial Production,
- Statestreet
Physically Settled Futures
- GIF5 will expire on 16-Jan at 1940 UTC
- AEXF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1500 UTC
- FCEF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1500 UTC
- MCAF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 0700 UTC
- OBFF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1500 UTC
- MFXIF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1545 UTC
- MFMIF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1545 UTC
- OMXC25F5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1555 UTC
- OMXF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1625 UTC
- WBSG5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1930 UTC
- MCLG5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1930 UTC
- QMG5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1930 UTC
- KUF5 will expire on 20-Jan at 0600 UTC
- CLG5 will expire on 21-Jan at 1600 UTC
- VXF5 will expire on 22-Jan at 1400 UTC
- VXMF5 will expire on 22-Jan at 1400 UTC
- FVSF5 will expire on 22-Jan at 1100 UTC
- TWNF5 will expire on 23-Jan at 0550 UTC
- ECOG5 will expire on 24-Jan at 1000 UTC