Morning Brew February 26 2025

Good morning,

Apparently, the US and Ukraine have agreed on terms of a mineral deal. The details are not yet disclosed and are not yet clear. Trump said President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wants to come to Washington on Friday to sign a "very big deal."

The largest drop in US consumer confidence since 2021 sparked risk-off sentiment yesterday across assets. Retailers were boosted by an analyst upgrade to Walmart; the shares gained 4.4%, pulling the sector and the Dow up. The Dow ended up 0.37%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.5%, and the Nasdaq was down 1.35%. Intraday swings were larger.

The US consumer confidence came in at 98.3 versus an expectation of 102.5; the lowest estimate was 99.3.

US yields, USD, crypto, and precious metals lost: The 10-year yields are at 4.3%, a full half percentage point below this month's high. The USD Index is 106.53, EURUSD 1.0490. Bitcoin dropped massively to below USD 90,000. Gold broke below USD 2,900 but could recover to USD 2,910, and silver also lost to now USD 31.70. Gold fell to USD 69 per barrel.

Tesla remains in the spotlight as Elon Musk sparks adversity. Even though sales of electric vehicles rose in Europe in January, Tesla’s sales fell by 50%. The stock fell to USD 303 and lost a full quarter of its value in 2025. The other big loser at the moment is Palantir. It sounds outlandish that the share is 30% off the high but still up 16% this year alone in February.

The EU is looking to reduce bureaucracy with amendments to the changes to the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive. This shows the pressure is being recognised and is a good sign. The US took the first step to pass the tax-cut and border security agenda. More than 20 engineers resigned from Elon Musk's Doge department, stating in an open letter they would refuse to use their expertise to "dismantle critical public services."

China is criticizing Taiwan for giving away the chip industry to the US referring to TSMC.

G20 is starting in South Africa, the sentiment will be interesting  - how withdrawn are the US?

With the economic agenda today fairly empty, Nvidia’s earnings are likely to be the key event, with an USD 8 swing in the stock priced in. Remember, you are able to trade US stocks until 23:00 CET if you use the extended trading hours feature in the platform.

We are trading the month ultimo in FX today, which could cause some swings as well, Futures Expiries are looming as well 

We have several Fed speakers: Barkin, Harker, Hammack, Bowman, and Barr.

• Wednesday: AU CPI, Japan Leading Indicator Earnings: Lowe's, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Nvidia, Snowflake, Salesforce
• Thursday: DE Unemployment, US Durable Goods, GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Consumer Confidence Earnings: Norwegian Cruise Line, TD Bank, SoundHound, Dell
• Friday: Japan CPI, UK House Prices, CH KOF, US PCE Earnings: Frontline

Physically Settled Futures

EMAH5 will expire on 26 Feb 2025 at 14:00
FLGH5 will expire on 26 Feb 2025 at 16:00
CGBH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
HGH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
KEH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
RRH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
SIH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
SILH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
TNH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
UBH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
XCH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:0
KH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
XWH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
Z3NH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
ZBH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
ZCH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
ZFH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
ZLH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
ZMH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
ZNH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
ZSH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
ZTH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
ZWH5 will expire on 27 Feb 2025 at 16:00
SBH5 will expire on 28 Feb 2025 at 16:00
EBMH5 will expire on 3 Mar 2025 at 15:00
HOH5 will expire on 28 Feb 2025 at 16:00
RBH5 will expire on 28 Feb 2025 at 16:00