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Morning Brew April 30 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Heading in to May: will the old proverb hold?
Good morning,
Yesterday we saw a lot of trading to set up positions for the next few days and the big question is if the old proverb "Sell in May and go away" will come true...
Earnings, Month Ultimo and Economic Data along the first of May holiday made for massive volumes. While the move in Indexes was not dramatic with the Dow +0.75%, the S&P 500 +0.6% and the Nasdaq 0.55%, Volumes hit 20 billion shares.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted China could lose 10 million jobs quickly due to tariffs, at the same time UPS annouced to cut 20.000 jobs in the US
A curious situation occurred yesterday as the US Press secretary said if Amazon were to publish the price increase by tariffs, it would be a hostile act.
We are starting to see the impact form the US Tariffs: VW expects earnings for the full year to be at the lower end of its forecast, Porsche lowered the forecast and Mercedis cut it`s forecast altogether.
China`s factory activity fell more than expected to 49 versus the 49.89 expected
US Yields fell slightly yesterday, the US Index is little changed with EURUSD at 1.1377 GBPUSD 1.3390 and USDJPY 142.65. USDCHF is at 0.8240.
Precious Metals are at 3310 for Gold and 32.85 for Silver looking for inspiration. Gold is trading 16% above the 200 Day moving average and 6 above the 50.
Expect sharp moves the next three days at any point in time so trade safely and remember to consider optionality to protect yourself
Wednesday, April 30
- Australia: CPI
- China: PMI
- Germany: Import Prices YoY (06:00 AM CEST), Retail Sales, Unemployment, GDP
- France: Inflation Rate YoY/MoM Prel, PPI (06:45 AM CEST)
- EU: GDP
- Switzerland: KOF
- US: GDP, PCE Price Index
- Canada: GDP
Thursday, May 1
- France: Budget Balance (06:45 AM CEST)
- Italy: Manufacturing PMI (07:45 AM CEST)
- Germany: Manufacturing PMI (07:55 AM CEST)
- Euro Area: ECB Economic Bulletin (08:00 AM CEST)
- Italy: Unemployment Rate (08:00 AM CEST)
- Euro Area: Inflation Rate YoY Flash (09:00 AM CEST)
- Switzerland: Retail Sales, procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (07:30 AM CEST)
- US: PMI
Friday, May 2
- Global PMI
- US: Nonfarm Payrolls
Earnings:
- Wednesday: Amphenol (APH), Caterpillar, Western Digital, Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood
- Thursday: Lilly, Mastercard, McDonald's, Amazon, Apple, Airbnb, Reddit
- Friday: ExxonMobil