Morning Brew April 28 2025

Good morning,

Even if US Equities had the best week in a long time, the first 100 days of DJT have a pretty bleak outcome: the Dollar lost 9% in Value and the S&P 500 gave up 8.5%.

The earning season so far is going well with approximately 75% of the companies beating expectations. The Elephant in the room is the impact of tariffs and trade disputes initiated by Team Trump. Many companies have been very careful to issue full year guidance. The impact of the tariffs will take time to filter in and traders may be too complacent. In the time of instant gratification, it is still important to be aware that supply chain disruptions, tariffs and other disruptions to trade take time to have an impact – we may need a few more months before we are able to assess effect of the current actions. Charu wrote a longer article on this topic

Most noteworthy stock on Friday was Tesla up 10%, Intel a large detractor down nearly 7%. The fact that in the last week, Tesla gained 18% but is still down 30% Year to date shows how crazy times are.

In Japan, Toyota motors is considering a buyout of Toyota industries, the shares rise 4.3%.

US 10 Year Yields are trading at 4.25%, the USD Index is at 99.50 with EURUSD 1.1375, GBPUSD 1.3314, USDJPY 143.50. We could see some volatility in the Loonie this week as the general election is fairly tight. Liberals are leading in the polls as Mark Carney seems to be able to unite Canadians by standing up against the Trump administration.

Gold and Silver are trading somewhat lower at currently 3290 and 32.90, putting the XAUXAG ratio at 100.

This week, there are key earnings – 4 of the magnificent 7 will announce results on 

Key economic data include the US GDP, the PCE and the Nonfarm Payroll.

Besides the scheduled events, Tariffs and other US measures will dominate markets. Donald Trump said he has made 200 Tariff deals but is notably short on details, China renounced news that talks were underway.

The nuclear talks with Iran and the escalation between India and Pakistan need careful monitoring.

Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskiy met at the funeral in Rome and it seems both were happy with how the meeting went, the US is apparently putting more pressure on Russia to move ahead with ceasefire talks and end attacks on civilians.

It should be a great week for traders with lots of volatility to go around

Monday, April 28

- Germany: 3-Month Bubill Auction (09:30 AM CEST)

- France: Unemployment Benefit Claims (10:00 AM CEST)

- UK: CBI Distributive Trades (10:00 AM CEST)

- US: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (02:30 PM CEST)

Tuesday, April 29

- Germany: GfK Consumer Confidence (06:00 AM CEST)

- Sweden: GDP (08:00 AM CEST)

- Italy: Business & Consumer Confidence (08:00 AM CEST)

- Euro Area: Economic Sentiment (09:00 AM CEST)

- US: Goods Trade Balance Advance (12:30 PM CEST), Jolts Job Openings, Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, April 30

- Australia:  CPI

- China PMI

- Germany: Import Prices YoY (06:00 AM CEST), Retail Sales, Unemployment, GDP,

- France: Inflation Rate YoY/MoM Prel, PPI (06:45 AM CEST)

- EU GDP

- Switzerland: KOF

-US GDP, PCE Price Index

- Canada GDP

Thursday, May 1

- France: Budget Balance (06:45 AM CEST)

- Italy: Manufacturing PMI (07:45 AM CEST)

- Germany: Manufacturing PMI (07:55 AM CEST)

- Euro Area: ECB Economic Bulletin (08:00 AM CEST)

- Italy: Unemployment Rate (08:00 AM CEST)

- Euro Area: Inflation Rate YoY Flash (09:00 AM CEST)

- Switzerland: Retail Sales. procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (07:30 AM CEST

- US PMI

Friday, May 2

• Global PMI,
• -- US Nonfarm Payrolls.
• Monday Cadence Bank (CADE), Transocean,
• Tuesday  UPS, Paypal, JEtblue, Coca Cola Pfizer Spotify, Visa, Starbucks, Snap
• Wednesday Amphenol (APH) Caterpillar, Western Digital, Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood,
• Thursday: Lilly, Mastercard, MacDonalds. Amazon, Apple. Airbnb, Reddit,
• Friday: ExxonMobile