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Morning Brew April 16 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Sino-US Tradewar weighs
Good morning,
We seem to be in a bit of a consolidation phase at the moment, where investors as well as traders are trying to assess the impact of US policies and the policies themselves. Markets have calmed in terms of volatility and volumes, also aided by the Easter holiday.
Yesterday was a mixed day, with the S&P 500 slightly red but the Nasdaq 100 and most international indexes green. Bank of America and Citi rose after earnings. Yields are off the highs, with the US 10-year at 4.32, the UK at 4.63, and the EU at 2.532. The USD Index fell to below 100, trading at 99.66; EURUSD is 1.1345, Cable 1.3257, and USDJPY 142.40. The Swiss Franc is worryingly strong and at levels that will make the SNB uncomfortable: EURCHF is 0.9250 and USDCHF 0.8150. Gold is at a record high at 3290, and Silver at 32.45. The strength in Gold and Swiss Franc levels shows there is still significant demand for safe havens, and the USD is not part of that.
Over night, risk is under pressure again due to escalations in the trade war. Nvidia lost 6% after hours (post 23:00). the US Tech 100 NAS is down 2% , the GEr40 -1.3%
In the headlines:
- Sino-US relations remain key and have the potential to move markets at any point in time.
- China’s economic growth data is stronger than expected.
- China banned airplane and part purchases from the US; the US retaliated with restrictions on chip sales.
- ASML warns of an unclear outlook as it disappoints in terms of earnings.
Today, trade relations between the US and China and the rest of the world will remain key. UK and EU inflation data will only matter if they deviate massively from expectations. We also expect U.S. retail sales and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day. The Bank of Canada is nearly certain to cut rates by 25 basis points, just like the ECB tomorrow.
Wednesday, April 16, 2025
- UK CPI
- EU Inflation
- Advance Retail Sales for March
- BoC Rate Decision
- Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March
- Business Inventories for February
Earnings:
- Alcoa US Bancorp, Abbott, Progressive
Thursday, April 17, 2025
Japan Trade
ECB Rate decision
US Initial Jobless claims, Phily Fed.
Thursday - TSMC, Netflix, UnitedHealth Group, Huntington Bancshares, American Express, Regions Financial
Friday, April 18, 2025
Japan CPI