Ever-so-slight language tweaks in last night's statement from the Federal Open Market Committee left the market divided as to the Fed's intentions as some interpreted them as dovish and others as bearing a hawkish hue. "The dollar reaction is a bit difficult to gauge as there was quite a good rally going into the meeting which basically then unwound," says John J Hardy, Saxo’s head of forex strategy.
Elsewhere in FX, the Norwegian krone will be getting a good bit of attention today, Hardy says: "EURNOK is up against 9.70+ resistance ahead of the Norges Bank meeting and the nokky could be hit if there's a dovish tone".
Meanwhile, equities remain stuck in their range and also displayed a confused reaction to the FOMC statement, says Peter Garnry, Saxo’s head of equity strategy . "The Fed is sticking to its trajectory and is indicating that inflation and the economic outlook warrant a gradual rate hike cycle". However, underlying dollar strength should add to short-term momentum in European equities despite recent macro weakness.
Among individual stocks, electric vehicle maker Tesla is the standout among yesterday's crop of corporate earnings as it outdid expectations in both revenue and earnings per share.
Finally today, crude oil remains stuck in rut even though new data released yesterday revealed the biggest US stock increase since January. "This shows that the focus is firmly on May 12 and Trump's decision about the Iran nuclear deal," says Ole Hansen, Saxo’s head of commodity strategy.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.