Morning Brew November 5 2024

Good morning,

The US Election is amazingly close and uncertain – even if our John Hardy took a stance yesterday and stated he sees Harris winning because more women took to the polls.

Traders showed some nerves as US Indexes lost a little ground, with the closing Dow 0.6% lower and the  S&P 500 as well as the Nasdaq 0.3%

10 Year Yields are off the highs at 4.28, the USD Index is at 103.89. EURUSD 1.0877, GBPUSD 1.2955 and USDJPY 152.30. Bitcoin as one of the “Trump Trades” is swinging wildly, from a high near 72k we are fell to  below 67k to now trade 68700. Trump Media initially fell 6% yesterday to close up 12%.

I expect a somewhat exhausting trading day today as election results cannot be expected until early Wednesday at the earliest and it is entirely possible that there are one or more close calls in swing states that take longer to count. Volatility is to be expected at least this week I n my view. .

Check our US Election Hub in the Inspiration part of Saxotrader, our shortlists for the main election outcomes are worth contemplation while you wait for the results.

I doubt any of the US Data such as the US and UK  PMI will have a significant impact unless there is a massive surprise - expect overall nervousness

The earnings by Supermicro will get attention after hours after the auditor threw the towel and shares are under severe pressure.

Other news:

• Palantir reported strong results and shares jumped 11%.
• The RBA left rates unchanges as expected
• Boeing resolved the labor dispute by agreeing to a 38% pay rise over 4 years
• The German coalition is struggling for survival as the three parties struggle with the budget and the economy.
• Saudi Aramco generates 15% less profit than a year ago at 27.5 Billion USD

Tuesday

- Data China UK &US  PMI, US Election, DE Industrial Orders,

Earnings: Supermicrocomputer, Panamerican Silver

Wednesday
- Data US Election Result,
- Earnings: Novo Nordisk, Teva, Toyota, ARM, AMC, Qualcom,

Thursday
- Data DE Industrial Production, Sweden, Norway, UK and US Rate Decisions
- Earnings: Moderna, Barrick Gold, Halliburton, Rivian, thetradedesk, Pinterest, Airbnb

Friday
- Data Canada Labor Data
- Earnings, Sony,