Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Equities continue their ascend on little news – a positive outlook by Best Buy boosted sentiment yesterday and caused the stock to gain nearly 13%. Indexes gained about 1% and the s&P 500 hit a 2.5 Month high. Manchester United jumped more than 14% with diverging reasons, part cites the fact that Ronaldo will leave, the other that the owners are considering a sale.
US Yields are mid-range at 3.75 and the USD Index at 107. EURUSD is 1.0330 and GBPUSD 1.1880. Gold and Silver 1738 and 21.10.
Technical Comment: Gold XAUUSD has retraced to test support at 1,735. Gold can drop a bit lower without reversing the uptrend. A close below 1,700 will reverse the uptrend. RSI is still showing positive sentiment and no divergence indicating likely new highs on the short-term. 1,808 is key resistance for Gold change to medium-term uptrend.
Today is likely the most interesting day of the week with International PMI being released:
9:15 France
9:30 Germany
10:00 EU
10:30 UK
15:45 US
In addition we are expecting the Durable goods orders at 14:30 and the Fed Minutes in the evening, several commentators warn the minutes could be more hawkish than hoped.
For many US based traders and investors it is the start into a long weekend so I expect a somewhat erratic day.
Next week we should be back to normal crazy.
Thanksgiving Day 2022
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.