Morning Brew November 23 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Equities continue their ascend on little news – a positive outlook by Best Buy boosted sentiment yesterday and caused the stock to gain nearly 13%. Indexes gained about 1% and the s&P 500 hit a 2.5 Month high. Manchester United jumped more than 14% with diverging reasons, part cites the fact that Ronaldo will leave, the other that the owners are considering a sale.
US Yields are mid-range at 3.75 and the USD Index at 107. EURUSD is 1.0330 and GBPUSD 1.1880. Gold and Silver 1738 and 21.10.
Technical Comment: Gold XAUUSD has retraced to test support at 1,735. Gold can drop a bit lower without reversing the uptrend. A close below 1,700 will reverse the uptrend. RSI is still showing positive sentiment and no divergence indicating likely new highs on the short-term. 1,808 is key resistance for Gold change to medium-term uptrend.
Today is likely the most interesting day of the week with International PMI being released:
In addition we are expecting the Durable goods orders at 14:30 and the Fed Minutes in the evening, several commentators warn the minutes could be more hawkish than hoped.
For many US based traders and investors it is the start into a long weekend so I expect a somewhat erratic day.
Next week we should be back to normal crazy.
Thanksgiving Day 2022
Latest Market Insights
Q4 Outlook 2022: Winter is coming
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.