Morning BrewMay 12 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Risk Off Sentiment remains in the driver seat and markets extremely volatile.
Indexes are under pressure despite falling yields and the USD continues to soar. This morning the GER40 falls to 13540, the USTECH to 11957 and the US500 to 3928. Tesla falls +8% weighing on sentiment further.
The USD Index rises to 104.15, EURUSD is hovering the 1.0490, GBPUSD at 1.2185, USDJOPY falls to 129.50. US ten Years fall to 2.85 the Bund Future rises by 100 BPS, interestingly Implied Vol falls more than 1%. The UK GDP came lower than expected this morning at 6.4% vs 6.8%.
Bitcoin fell to below 27k, giving up all of 2021 gains.
Oil falls on cited growth worries.
Foxconn reports an increase of 5% in profits and Softbank posts a Q1 loss of USD 13bio. Chinese developer Sunac China missed the deadline for coupon payments on a $742 million offshore bond.
Quick tech comments: S&P500 on course for target around 3,815 in May. However, 3,500 is not unlikely
Nasdaq 100 below support at 12,208. No strong support before around 11,152, DAX in down trend , next support is 13.380
US 10 Year T-Note likely to bounce to 122 and yield could correct to around 2.5%
Key economic Data is the US PPI at 14:30, the key metrics is annual number ex Food & Energy expected at 8.9%.
Tomorrow I will be on a business Trip and not writing an update. Watch out for the Chinese, German and US CPI numbers at 8:00 CET and 14:30 CET as the key events.
Our Steen Jacobsen points out that the market is sentiment driven and not really anchored to the economy so any
Physically Settled Futures:
CLM2 will expire on 20th May 2022 at 15:00 GMT.
PAM2 will expire on 23rd May 2022 at 15:00 GMT.
OILUSJUN22 will expire on 18th May at 15:00 GMT.
NATGASUSJUN22 will expire on 24th May at 15:00 GMT.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.