Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew March 27 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Will the calm hold?


Good Morning,

Markets seem to be a bit calmer today but it remains too be seen if we have seen the worst of the banking crisis. This will most likely also be the most important to watch this week.

Overall bank deposits fell in recent weeks and nervousness in the financial system was very dominant – especially in social media. Options on the GLD ETF rose to record highs and risk averseness was the dominant sentiment. Friday, CDS on banks rose strongly driving stocks lower and Gold and Siiver higher-

There are basically two things that can resolve a banking crisis, either government intervention or time so the underlying caution may go on for a while.

Lack of bad news over the weekend and news that First Citizen was purchasing a large part of silicon Valley Bank helps risk sentiment today.

2 Year Yields are on the rise,  now near 3.9%, the USD Index is back at 103.2, EURUSD is at 1.0750, GBPUSD 1.2225, USDCHF 0.9195. Gold and Silver are lower at 1970 and 23.00. Gold could be interesting this week with the large amount of call options being bought – if the price rises, there could b a so called gamma squeeze which we saw from the so called meme stocks during the pandemic. A rising price basically becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as sellers of the options are forced to buy to hedge their exposure.

Equities are also friendly with the US 500 back near the 4000 (3992) the US tech 100 at 12820 and the GER 40 at 15122.

 

The week is thin on key data, focus will be on the banking crisis, month end adjustments and comments from central bankers and politicians.

Trade safely.-

 

Monday 27 March

  • Germany IFO Business Survey (Mar)
  • Germany Retail Sales (Feb)
  • UK BOE Bailey speaks
  • US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index (Mar)
  • China Industrial Profits (Feb)

Tuesday, 28 March

  • Australia Retail Sales (Feb)
  • UK Bailey Testifies on SVB
  • US Senate Banking Committee to hold first hearing on SVB collapse
  • US Advance Goods Trade Balance (Feb)
  • US Consumer Confidence (Mar)

Wednesday, 29 March

  • Australia CPI (Feb)
  • Bank of Thailand rate decision
  • German GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr)
  • UK BOE Mann speaks
  • US House FSA hearing on SVB

Thursday, 30 March

  • Germany CPI (Mar P)
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (25-Mar)
  • US GDP (Q4 T)
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed’s Barkin speak

Friday, 31 March

  • Japan Jobless Rate (Feb)
  • Japan Tokyo CPI (Mar)
  • China PMIs (Mar)
  • UK GDP (Q4 F)
  • France CPI (Mar P)
  • Italy CPI (Mar P)
  • Eurozone CPI (Mar P)
  • US PCE (Feb)
  • US Univ. of Michigan Sentiment (Mar F)

 

Earnings on watch this week:

  • Monday: BioNTech, Carnival
  • Tuesday: BYD, Nongfu Spring, Micron Technology, Lululemon Athletica, Walgreens Boots Alliance
  • Wednesday: Constellation Software, Cintas, Paychex
  • Thursday: Kweichow Moutai, Great Wall Motor, H&M

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.