Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Will the calm hold?
Good Morning,
Markets seem to be a bit calmer today but it remains too be seen if we have seen the worst of the banking crisis. This will most likely also be the most important to watch this week.
Overall bank deposits fell in recent weeks and nervousness in the financial system was very dominant – especially in social media. Options on the GLD ETF rose to record highs and risk averseness was the dominant sentiment. Friday, CDS on banks rose strongly driving stocks lower and Gold and Siiver higher-
There are basically two things that can resolve a banking crisis, either government intervention or time so the underlying caution may go on for a while.
Lack of bad news over the weekend and news that First Citizen was purchasing a large part of silicon Valley Bank helps risk sentiment today.
2 Year Yields are on the rise, now near 3.9%, the USD Index is back at 103.2, EURUSD is at 1.0750, GBPUSD 1.2225, USDCHF 0.9195. Gold and Silver are lower at 1970 and 23.00. Gold could be interesting this week with the large amount of call options being bought – if the price rises, there could b a so called gamma squeeze which we saw from the so called meme stocks during the pandemic. A rising price basically becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as sellers of the options are forced to buy to hedge their exposure.
Equities are also friendly with the US 500 back near the 4000 (3992) the US tech 100 at 12820 and the GER 40 at 15122.
The week is thin on key data, focus will be on the banking crisis, month end adjustments and comments from central bankers and politicians.
Trade safely.-
Monday 27 March
Tuesday, 28 March
Wednesday, 29 March
Thursday, 30 March
Friday, 31 March
Earnings on watch this week:
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy