PaloCrwdHeader

CrowdStrike and Palo Alto earnings: the next AI stress test

Equities 5 minutes to read
Ruben Dalfovo
Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Key takeaways

  • CrowdStrike and Palo Alto enter earnings with high expectations and strong recent share-price momentum.

  • Artificial intelligence is raising both cyber risks and demand for better digital defences.

  • Key areas to monitor include customer growth, contract demand, margins and how each company describes the role of artificial intelligence in cybersecurity.


Cybersecurity used to be a digital lock on the office door. Now the building has more doors, more windows, more delivery robots, and one intern using artificial intelligence (AI) to write code at midnight.

That is why this week matters. Palo Alto Networks reports fiscal third-quarter 2026 results after the US market close on 2 June 2026. CrowdStrike reports fiscal first-quarter 2027 results after the US market close on 3 June 2026.

Both companies sit at the centre of a simple but powerful investment question: does AI make cybersecurity software less valuable, or more important?

The market has recently leaned towards “more important”. Both CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks have seen strong investor interest ahead of results, helped by the view that AI could expand the need for better digital defences.

Two different ways to guard the same castle

CrowdStrike protects computers, cloud systems and employee identities through its Falcon platform. In plain English, it helps companies spot suspicious activity early and stop attacks before they spread. That matters in a world where one weak laptop, cloud account or password can become the front door for a much bigger problem.

For the quarter ending 30 April 2026, CrowdStrike guided for revenue of about 1.36 billion USD and annual recurring revenue of around 5.50 billion USD. Annual recurring revenue is the subscription income a company expects to repeat each year. For investors, it shows whether customers are staying, spending more and treating the product as essential digital plumbing.

The key question is whether CrowdStrike can keep turning its customer base into broader platform demand. It has largely rebuilt investor confidence after the 2024 software update incident that disrupted millions of Windows devices. Earnings will test whether customers keep expanding Falcon across more of their security budgets.

Palo Alto Networks is broader. It sells security across networks, cloud systems, security operations, identity and artificial intelligence. Its strategy is called “platformisation”, meaning customers buy more tools from one provider instead of stitching together many separate products.

Palo Alto guided for fiscal third-quarter revenue of about 2.95 billion USD, up around 29% from a year earlier, and remaining performance obligation of nearly 18 billion USD. That is contracted future revenue not yet booked. The strategic question is whether Palo Alto can become a trusted one-stop security platform without becoming too complex.

Project Glasswing changes the conversation

The bigger story is not just earnings. It is Project Glasswing.

On 8 April 2026, Anthropic announced Project Glasswing, an initiative involving major technology and cybersecurity companies, including CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks. The goal is to use advanced AI to find and fix weaknesses in critical software before attackers exploit them.

That matters because AI changes both sides of the cybersecurity equation. Attackers may use AI to scan code faster, find weaknesses and automate phishing messages that look more convincing. Defenders can use AI to detect strange behaviour, write safer code and respond faster.

This is why cybersecurity is different from some other software categories. In areas like traditional software as a service, AI may reduce the need for some human users and pressure seat-based pricing. In cybersecurity, AI may increase the workload. More digital activity means more places to defend. More automated code means more possible bugs. More AI agents inside companies means new security rules, new monitoring needs and new budget lines.

For investors, the question is not whether cyberattacks disappear. They will not. The question is which companies can turn a more complex threat environment into durable demand without letting costs run ahead of growth.

What the market wants to hear

The market reaction will likely depend on four signals.

First, investors will watch growth quality. Revenue growth is helpful, but subscription demand, customer retention and larger customer deals matter more for long-term confidence.

Second, margins matter. Cybersecurity companies must keep investing in AI, cloud infrastructure and sales teams. If growth stays strong but profitability weakens, investors may become less forgiving.

Third, guidance matters more than the quarter just reported. Markets care about the next hill, not only the one just climbed.

Fourth, management language around AI will be important. Investors want evidence that AI is not just a slide in a presentation, but something customers are buying, using and renewing.

Recent sector volatility adds pressure. Zscaler’s weaker outlook in late May 2026 hit sentiment across cybersecurity, even though analysts debated whether the issue was company-specific or sector-wide. That is the market’s usual subtlety: one company coughs, and the whole sector gets offered a blanket.

Risks to keep in view

The first risk is valuation. Both stocks already reflect high expectations. When shares run hard into results, even good numbers can disappoint if guidance is not strong enough.

The second risk is competition. Microsoft, cloud providers and start-ups are all pushing into security. Customers want fewer tools, but that does not guarantee the same winners forever.

The third risk is execution. CrowdStrike must keep proving reliability after the 2024 outage. Palo Alto must show that platformisation and acquisitions can improve the customer offer without creating complexity. Early warning signs include weaker customer growth, slower contract expansion, rising sales costs and softer renewal trends.

Investor playbook

  • Watch guidance first. A strong past quarter matters less than confidence in the next few quarters.
  • Track annual recurring revenue and remaining performance obligation as signals of future demand.
  • Compare growth with margins. Fast growth is better when it does not require ever-higher spending.
  • Keep position size in mind. Cybersecurity is structural, but high expectations can make stocks jumpy.

The lock is no longer enough

Cybersecurity remains one of the clearest long-term digital themes because companies cannot simply opt out of being protected. Banks, hospitals, factories, retailers and governments all run on software. That software now faces a smarter threat environment, partly because AI gives both attackers and defenders sharper tools.

CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks enter earnings week as two leading names in that fight, but also as stocks carrying high expectations. For investors, the lesson is balanced: cybersecurity demand looks structural, but price still matters. The door needs a lock, the windows need sensors, and the portfolio still needs discipline.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication

Outrageous Predictions 2026

01 /

  • Switzerland's Green Revolution: CHF 30 Billion Initiative by 2050

    Outrageous Predictions

    Switzerland's Green Revolution: CHF 30 Billion Initiative by 2050

    Katrin Wagner

    Head of Investment Content Switzerland

    Switzerland launches a CHF 30 billion energy revolution by 2050, rivaling Lindt & Sprüngli's market ...
  • The Swiss Fortress – 2026

    Outrageous Predictions

    The Swiss Fortress – 2026

    Erik Schafhauser

    Senior Relationship Manager

    Swiss voters reject EU ties, boosting the Swiss Franc and sparking Switzerland's "Souveränität Zuers...
  • Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Outrageous Predictions

    Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Saxo Group

    Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
  • A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Outrageous Predictions

    A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi...
  • Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral...
  • Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril...
  • Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Outrageous Predictions

    Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Neil Wilson

    Investor Content Strategist

    A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash...
  • SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    Outrageous Predictions

    SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-...
  • Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    Outrageous Predictions

    Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w...
  • Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    Outrageous Predictions

    Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...

This content is marketing material.

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank Switzerland and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo Bank Switzerland’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Saxo Bank Switzerland partners with companies that provide compensation for promotional activities conduced on its platform. Additionally, Saxo Bank Switzerland has agreements with certain partners who provide retrocession contingent upon clients purchasing specific products offered by these partners.

While Saxo Bank Switzerland receives compensation from these partnerships, all educational and research content remains focused on providing information to clients.  

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo Bank Switzerland does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore not been prepared in accordance with directives of the Swiss Bankers Association designed to promote the independence of financial research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of the marketing material.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.