Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
Global shares remain friendly and the Buffet indicator (Market Cap/GDP ) solid in Bubble territory at above 130. S&P and Dax trade near all-time highs, the 10 Year rate in the US remains near 3 month lows at 1.45 and the USD Index rises to 90.50. Gold and Silver retreat to 1865 and 27.90. The feeling is that traders are cutting a little risk ahead of the FOMC decision on Wednesday.
Speculators reduced their net long gold positions last week but increased their net long positions in silver.
Elon did it again, stating Tesla will accept Bitcoin again once 50% is mined using clean energy, Bitcoin rises app. 10% to above 39k.
We have lots of data coming up this week bit the US CPI tomorrow and the FOMC Rate decision on Wednesday are the most likely to be important.
In other news, the G7 were quite firm on China, asking the country to respect Human rights and keep the hands off Taiwan, China rejected the statement.
At the meeting friction between the EU and Britain resurfaced with the temporary border agreement running out.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Unit |
14 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Industrial Production MM | Apr | 0.4% | Percent |
14 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Industrial Production YY | Apr | 37.4% | Percent |
14 Jun 2021 | 13:00 | Brazil | IBC-BR EconomicActivity | Apr | 0.55% | Percent |
14 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Manufacturing Sales MM | Apr | -1.0% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 01:55 | South Korea | Export Growth Revised | May | Percent | |
15 Jun 2021 | 01:55 | South Korea | Import Growth Revised | May | Percent | |
15 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Home Price Index | Q1 | 5.5% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | CPI Final MM | May | 0.5% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | CPI Final YY | May | 2.5% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | HICP Final MM | May | 0.3% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | HICP Final YY | May | 2.4% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant Count Unem Chng | May | Person | |
15 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | Apr | 4.7% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Employment Change | Apr | 150k | Person |
15 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY | Apr | 4.9% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) | Apr | 5.3% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Final MM | May | 0.4% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Final YY | May | 1.8% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | Consumer Prices Final MM | May | Percent | |
15 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | Consumer Prices Final YY | May | Percent | |
15 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Final MM | May | 0.0% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Final YY | May | 1.3% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 12:00 | Euro Zone | Reserve Assets Total | May | EUR | |
15 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | New Zealand | Milk Auctions | 15 Jun, w/e | USD | |
15 Jun 2021 | 14:15 | Canada | House Starts, Annualized | May | 280.0k | Number of |
15 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | NY Fed Manufacturing | Jun | 22.00 | Index |
15 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | PPI Final Demand YY | May | 6.3% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | PPI Final Demand MM | May | 0.6% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | PPI exFood/Energy YY | May | 4.8% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | PPI exFood/Energy MM | May | 0.6% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Retail Sales MM | May | -0.8% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM | May | 0.4% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Retail Control | May | 0.0% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 15:15 | United States | Industrial Production MM | May | 0.6% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 15:15 | United States | Capacity Utilization SA | May | 75.0% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Business Inventories MM | Apr | -0.1% | Percent |
15 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | NAHB Housing Market Indx | Jun | 83 | Index |
16 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | Current Account - Qtrly | Q1 | -2.230B | NZD |
16 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | Current Account- Annual | Q1 | -6.680B | NZD |
16 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | Current Account/GDP | Q1 | -2.1% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders MM | Apr | 2.7% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders YY | Apr | 8.0% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Exports YY | May | 51.3% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Imports YY | May | 26.6% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Trade Balance Total Yen | May | -91.2B | JPY |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | CPI MM | May | 0.3% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | CPI YY | May | 1.8% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | RPI MM | May | 0.2% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | RPI YY | May | 3.2% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | RPIX YY | May | Percent | |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Input Prices MM NSA | May | 1.1% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Input Prices YY NSA | May | Percent | |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Output Prices MM NSA | May | 0.4% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Output Prices YY NSA | May | 4.5% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Core Output MM NSA | May | Percent | |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Core Output YY NSA | May | Percent | |
16 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | China (Mainland) | Urban Investment (YTD)YY | May | 16.9% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | China (Mainland) | Industrial Output YY | May | 9.0% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | China (Mainland) | Retail Sales YY | May | 13.6% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Building Permits: Number | May | 1.740M | Number of |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Housing Starts Number | May | 1.630M | Number of |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Import Prices MM | May | 0.7% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI Inflation MM | May | 0.4% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI Inflation YY | May | 3.5% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI BoC Core YY | May | Percent | |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI BoC Core MM | May | Percent | |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Wholesale Trade MM | Apr | -0.9% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 20:00 | United States | Fed Funds Tgt Rate | 16 Jun | 0-0.25 | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 20:00 | United States | Fed Int On Excess Reserves | 16 Jun | Percent | |
16 Jun 2021 | 23:00 | Brazil | Selic Interest Rate | 16 Jun | 4.25% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | GDP Prod Based QQ, SA | Q1 | 0.5% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | GDP Prod Based YY, SA | Q1 | 0.9% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | GDP Prod Based, Ann Avg | Q1 | -2.8% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | GDP Exp Based QQ, SA | Q1 | 0.5% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Employment | May | 30.0k | Person |
17 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Participation Rate | May | 66.1% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Unemployment Rate | May | 5.5% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | HICP MM | May | Percent | |
17 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | HICP YY | May | Percent | |
17 Jun 2021 | 09:30 | Switzerland | SNB Policy Rate | Q2 | Percent | |
17 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Norway | Key Policy Rate | 17 Jun | 0.00% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Final MM | May | 0.3% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Final YY | May | 2.0% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F, E, A, T Final MM | May | 0.2% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F,E,A&T Final YY | May | 0.9% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | CBT Weekly Repo Rate | Jun | 19.00% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | O/N Lending Rate | Jun | Percent | |
17 Jun 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | O/N Borrowing Rate | Jun | Percent | |
17 Jun 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | Late Liquidity Window Rate | Jun | Percent | |
17 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 12 Jun, w/e | Person | |
17 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Cont Jobless Clm | 5 Jun, w/e | Person | |
17 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Philly Fed Business Indx | Jun | 31.0 | Index |
18 Jun 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | CPI, Core Nationwide YY | May | 0.1% | Percent |
18 Jun 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | CPI, Overall Nationwide | May | Percent | |
18 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Producer Prices MM | May | 0.6% | Percent |
18 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Producer Prices YY | May | 6.3% | Percent |
18 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales MM | May | 1.8% | Percent |
18 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM | May | 2.0% | Percent |
18 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales YY | May | 29.2% | Percent |
18 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales Ex-Fuel YY | May | 27.3% | Percent |
18 Jun 2021 | Japan | JP BOJ Rate Decision | 18 Jun | -0.10% | Percent |
(Refinitiv)
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
