Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
The message from the FOMC minutes was less clear than hoped. The key messages were
Probably the key message was that the Fed was that several Fed Members anticipate to start tapering earlier than previously anticipated but using a patient approach.
Almost more interesting than the FOMC Minutes was the fact that traders are expecting a raise if the debt ceiling in the near future. That will cause more bond issuances by the US. 10 Year Yields fell to below 1.30 % for the first time since February.
The USD Index fives up some gains in early Europe, currently 92.65 after a high at 92.80.
Equities could initially gain but futures came under pressure in the Asian session. Risk averseness was triggered by rising corona cases and worries that regulation may hurt tech shares as just seen with Didi.
Key Indexes are down 0.2-0.5% so not a huge move, EURUSD is trading at 1.1800 and Gold and Silver retreat to 27.90 and 1797. The Hang Seng fell below the 200 day Moving Average. Oil seems to have calmed a little after the Opec+ meeting/ Non-meeting turmoil, the CL contract seems to stabilize at around 72
The only key agenda item is the US Initial Jobless claims.
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Please be aware that cryptocurrencies are very volatile. Losses can exceed deposits. This marketing material does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to invest. Consult the risk disclosure statement on our website before investing
We offer ETHUSD; BTCUSD, LTCUSD, ETHEUR, BTCEUR and LTCEUR as long or short.
Please remember that cryptocurrencies are very volatile and make sure to check the trading conditions before starting to trade.
Headlines:
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
8 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Current Account NSA JPY | May | 1,820.4B |
8 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | IPCA Inflation Index MM | Jun | 0.60% |
8 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 3 Jul, w/e | 350k |
9 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | PPI YY | Jun | 8.8% |
9 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | CPI YY | Jun | 1.3% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Est 3M/3M | May | 3.9% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate MM | May | 1.5% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate YY | May | 25.9% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Output MM | May | 1.0% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Consumer Price Index MM | Jun | 0.4% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Consumer Price Index YY | Jun | 2.9% |
9 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Current Account Balance | May | -3.025B |
9 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Employment Change | Jun | 195.0k |
9 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 7.7% |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price MM | Jun | |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price YY | Jun | |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders MM | May | |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders YY | May | |
12 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | CPI YY | Jun | |
12 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | Total Social Financing | Jun | 2,800.00B | |
12 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | M2 Money Supply YY | Jun | 8.2% | |
12 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | New Yuan Loans | Jun | 1,800.0B |
(Refinitiv)
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach