Erik Erik Erik

Morning Brew February 17 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Ukraine tensions grow - markets remain nervous


Good Morning,

Equities had a mixed day yesterday and FX was dominated by the USD losing ground. It felt as if it was not clear what to focus on.  US Indexes closed basically unchanged but gave up ground over night.  Expect the increased Volatility to remain in place for the time being.

Reports of troop movements near Ukraine spooked sentiment and drove Gold and Silver higher. Gold is now again in reach of the 1875 resistance, Silver 23.50 and Oil 92.10.  "There's what Russia says. And then there's what Russia does. And we haven't seen any pullback of its forces," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated acc to Reuters.

This Morning there are reports that Ukrainian forces fired mortars at separatists positions..

The Fed Minutes were interpreted dovish despite stating “Most participants noted that, if inflation does not move down as they expect, it would be appropriate for the (Federal Open Market) Committee to remove policy accommodation at a faster pace than they currently anticipate” but the fact that no fixed path was defined.  “Members will be updating their assessments of the appropriate setting for the policy stance at each meeting."

US Retail sales came higher than expected yesterday, growing 3.89% vs the 2%  expected.

GBPUSD was supported by strong UK inflation and the weaker USD. We failed to breach the 1.36 so far and are trading 20 pips below. EURUSD seems to be focused on the Ukraine, rising to near 1,14 yesterday, falling sharply from 1.1380 to 1.1325 and are now at 1.1360. the 1 month impied volatility is at 7.3, 10% above yesterday. 

Japan ran its biggest trade deficit in eight years in January

The Turkish central bank is expected to leave rates in place at their meeting today.

Nvidia Beat expectations but fell 8 USD in the aftermarket, Nestle also reported better than expected results and will suggest a higher dividend.

Key Data coming up:

Today:  Turkey Rate decision, US Jobless Data and Phily Fed

18th UK Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence

 Earnings are Palantir, Roku, Walmart, Dropbox and Yamana Gold.

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.