Morning Brew February 17 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Ukraine tensions grow - markets remain nervous
Equities had a mixed day yesterday and FX was dominated by the USD losing ground. It felt as if it was not clear what to focus on. US Indexes closed basically unchanged but gave up ground over night. Expect the increased Volatility to remain in place for the time being.
Reports of troop movements near Ukraine spooked sentiment and drove Gold and Silver higher. Gold is now again in reach of the 1875 resistance, Silver 23.50 and Oil 92.10. "There's what Russia says. And then there's what Russia does. And we haven't seen any pullback of its forces," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated acc to Reuters.
This Morning there are reports that Ukrainian forces fired mortars at separatists positions..
The Fed Minutes were interpreted dovish despite stating “Most participants noted that, if inflation does not move down as they expect, it would be appropriate for the (Federal Open Market) Committee to remove policy accommodation at a faster pace than they currently anticipate” but the fact that no fixed path was defined. “Members will be updating their assessments of the appropriate setting for the policy stance at each meeting."
US Retail sales came higher than expected yesterday, growing 3.89% vs the 2% expected.
GBPUSD was supported by strong UK inflation and the weaker USD. We failed to breach the 1.36 so far and are trading 20 pips below. EURUSD seems to be focused on the Ukraine, rising to near 1,14 yesterday, falling sharply from 1.1380 to 1.1325 and are now at 1.1360. the 1 month impied volatility is at 7.3, 10% above yesterday.
Japan ran its biggest trade deficit in eight years in January
The Turkish central bank is expected to leave rates in place at their meeting today.
Nvidia Beat expectations but fell 8 USD in the aftermarket, Nestle also reported better than expected results and will suggest a higher dividend.
Key Data coming up:
Today: Turkey Rate decision, US Jobless Data and Phily Fed
18th UK Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence
Earnings are Palantir, Roku, Walmart, Dropbox and Yamana Gold.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.