Morning Brew December 4 2024

Good morning,

South Korea was the center of a political showdown as President Yoon declared martial law only to reverse the move hours later. The initial worry that the move might be related to an imminent confrontation with North Korea was luckily false.

With little data except a higher than expected Job opening number equities traded calm but friendly overall. Indexes closed mixed , the Dow lost  0.17%, the S&P 500 gained 0.05% the  Nasdaq up 0.40%.

Meta reaches new record high after gaining 3.5%, Tesla reported disappointing sales numbers in China and fell 1.6%, snowflake gained 7% after the bell on strong results.

In Europe, calming comments by French President Macron boosted sentiment but we are not out of the woods yet in my view. French and German equities traded friendly and the Dax closed above 20.000  for the first time ever.

Yields and USD were fairly calm looking for the next inspiration. EURUSD is 1.0525 GBPUSD 1.27 and USDJPY 150, Gold 2648 and Silver 31.03. Gold has recovered 50% of the recent selloff, Silver only a quarter... Bitcoin is holding just below the 100k.

We are expecting a load of date starting with global PMI with the US ISM at 16:00 CET the most important one, the ADP Employment at 14:15 may give a hint on the non farm Payroll but the numbers vary despite supposedly showing the same data point. 

France is facing it`s vote of non-confidence and yields remain worth watching. The budget deficit is heading for 7% of economic output if there are no significant cuts.

After the lower than expected inflation data yesterday, the Swiss National Bank is seen to cut rates by 50 basis points with a probability of 60%, the rate is expected to reach 0 in June or September.

If related to Trump or not, there is certainly a lot of political uncertainty at the moment with Germany facing re-elections, France`s government in turmoil, Romania and Gerorgia uncertain, trade friction between the US and China tensing. We are heading to "interesting" times. 

As every year we released out outrageous predictions: here are the headlines, to know more, read here

• Trump 2.0 blows up the US dollar
• Nvidia balloons to twice the value of Apple
• China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy
• First bio-printed human heart ushers in new era of longevity
• Electrification boom ends OPEC
• US imposes AI data center tax as power prices run wild
• A natural disaster bankrupts a large insurance company for the first time
• Sterling erases post-Brexit discount versus the euro

We also releases a guide to trade  the Non Farm Payroll on Friday, Trading the Non-Farm Payroll

Wednesday
- Data International PMI , Beige Book, Fed Chair Powell Speech

Thursday
- Data German Industrial Orders, US Initial Jobless Claims,

Friday
- Data De Industrial Output, EU GDP, US Nonfarm Payroll, University of Michigan Consumer confidence.

Physically Settled Futures (GMT)

LEZ4 will expire on 9/dec at 1600 hrs
FOATZ4 will expire on 6/dec at 1600 hrs
FGBXZ4 will expire on 6/dec at 1600 hrs
FGBSZ4 will expire on 6/dec at 1600 hrs
FGBMZ4 will expire on 6/dec at 1600 hrs
FGBLZ4 will expire on 6/dec at 1600 hrs
FBTSZ4 will expire on 6/dec at 1600 hrs
FBTPZ4 will expire on 6/dec at 1600 hrs
CZ4 will expire on 6/dec at 1000 hrs
CONFZ4 will expire on 6/dec at 1000 hrs
EBMZ4 will expire on 4/dec at 1500 hrs