Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
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Morning Brew December 16 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good morning,
We are heading into the last full trading week of the year and it will be a big one!
The Dow Jones had 7 days of losses while Nasdaq and S&P have held up better supported by big tech – the Magnificent 7 are now 33% of the S&P 500 as we are witnessing a massive concentration. A shift here is likely the biggest risk in the market at the moment.,
Longer Term US Yields are high despite the next cut being all but certain, the USD remains strong and while the Dax is trading at all time highs, the outlook is bleak: European stocks are expected to lag behind the U.S. by the most in at least 25 years, MSCI data showed, while the EURUSD has lost more than 5% and parity is being eyed.
Bitcoin has firmly breached the 100k over the weekend and is trading at 105k!
The USD Index is strong at 106.85 as the US 10 Year Yields are testing the 4.40, EURUSD is 1.0514, Cable 1.2633 and USDJOY 153.70. Gold and Silver are at 2653 and 30.60 a little in limbo for a year end rally or selloff.
China`s retail sales came as a disappointment in the night at 3% versus the 4.6% expected, is seems clear that we will see massive stimulus measures as soon as the stance of the Trump administration is more defined.
Going forward, this week is filled with key economic data, the most important will be the PMI`s today, the IFO and ZEW from Germany tomorrow, the US Rate decision on Wednesday, the UK Rate decision on Thursday and the US PCE Deflator and the Chinese Rate decision on Friday.
The times for the PMI today are France 9:15, Germany 9:30 EU 10:00, UK 10:30, US 15:45.
Not so much on the radar is the Swiss PPI, today at 8:30that will give a hint at the Swiss inflation and be an indication for the SNB`s path.
As the Swap rates are often unfavorable at year end, it may be a good idea to swap your positions into the new year if you are looking to hold positions into the new year.
Trade safely and expect a volatile week!!
Monday
- Data China Retail Sales. Japan Machine Orders, Global PMI,
Tuesday
- Data UK Employment data, DE IFO Index. ZEW, Canada CPI,
Wednesday
- Data Japan Trade Balance, UK CPI, US Rate Decision
Thursday
- Data BOE Rate decision, US GDP, Initial Jobless Claims
Friday
- Data China Rate decision US PCE
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