Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
News that Elon Musk will most likely but Twitter boosted risk sentiment yesterday pulling indexes into the green. Twitter closed 5.6% higher, the Dow gained +0.7%, the S&P 500 0.57% and the Nasdaq 1.3%.
UBS's first-quarter net profit rose more than expected by 17% on good trading numbers.
Overall markets still seem nervous and uncertain but off the lows for now. Oil can add almost 1% after falling nearly 5% yesterday, Gold and Silver rise off the lows to 19.05 and 23.80, EURUSD is little changed at 1.0725 and GBPUSD 1.2750. USDJPY falls below the 128 to 127.90. Bitcoin can break above the 40k again.
The Yuan strengthened by app 300 pips after the central bank stepped in to slow the currency's sharp falls, the USD is at levels we have not seen since the initial Corona Rout in early 2020.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated yesterday told the world not to underestimate the considerable risks of nuclear escalation over Ukraine. "NATO, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war."
Key risks to the markets remain Central Bank Policy, the Ukraine war and further sanctions as well as the lockdowns in China and supply chain issues resulting from it.
US Durable Goods at 14:30 Real Estate Data at 15:00 and Consumer confidence at 1600 are the most noteworthy economic events, in terms of earnings, we are expecting among others:
UBS, UPS, 3M GE, Visa Microsoft and Alphabet
Nearly a third of S&P 500 index firms are due to report this week so watch out.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
NGK2 will expire on 26th April at 19:30 GMT.
TTFMK2 will expire on 27th April at 15:00 GMT.
Expiring CFDs:
OPPERUSMAY22, CORNMAY22, GASOLINEUSMAY22, HEATINGOILMAY22, SILVERMAY22, SOYBEANMEALMAY22, SOYBEANOILMAY22, SOYBEANMAY22, SUGARNYMAY22, WHEATMAY22 will expire on 27th April at 15:00 GMT.
Trade Safely.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.