Morning Brew April 20 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Dovish Speakers support Equities, Netflix drops after hours
Equities had the best day in a month yesterday driven by earnings and dovish comments by Charles Evans and Atlanta Feds Raphael Bostic, the Dow gained 1.45%, the S&P 1.6% and the Nasdaq 2.15%, the German Dax gained to 14235 in the Future.
Real 10 year yields turned positive yesterday on 10 year yields exceeding the 3% level for the first time since 2018. Real Yields are the yield of the respective bond minus the expected inflation.
Oil fell 5% yesterday on worries of lower demand due to a lower growth forecast by the IMF, interestingly that did not affect equities. Over night , it can recover roughly 1%.
Japan’s trade balance come at a deficit 4 times higher than expected at JPY 412 bio, the Yen traded as low as 129.40 before a verbal intervention by the BoJ. EURUSD Is at 1.0813 and GBPUSD at 1.3025. Gold and Silver lost some ground on high yields and falling oil and are now at 1940 and 24.99. The USD Index falls slightly to 100.70
Netflix suffered falling subscriber numbers for the first time in a decade, stocks fell 24% in late trading. Twitter also lost 4.5% on uncertainty of a takeover. Elon Musk is rumored to provide an offer in the next ten days.
Credit Suisse expects Q1 loss due to legal costs.
Watch for Tesla earnings today.
Earnings this week:
- Wednesday: Tesla, Alcoa, P&G, Nasdaq
- Thursday: American Airlines, Snap, AT&T
- Friday: Amex, Verizon, SAP, Schlumberger
- Wednesday: German PPI at 08:00EU Industrial Production at 11:00, CA CPI at 14:30
- Thursday: EU HICP at 11, US Labor Data at 14:30
- Friday: UK CPI at 8:00, International PMI
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.