Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Dovish Speakers support Equities, Netflix drops after hours
Good Morning,
Equities had the best day in a month yesterday driven by earnings and dovish comments by Charles Evans and Atlanta Feds Raphael Bostic, the Dow gained 1.45%, the S&P 1.6% and the Nasdaq 2.15%, the German Dax gained to 14235 in the Future.
Real 10 year yields turned positive yesterday on 10 year yields exceeding the 3% level for the first time since 2018. Real Yields are the yield of the respective bond minus the expected inflation.
Oil fell 5% yesterday on worries of lower demand due to a lower growth forecast by the IMF, interestingly that did not affect equities. Over night , it can recover roughly 1%.
Japan’s trade balance come at a deficit 4 times higher than expected at JPY 412 bio, the Yen traded as low as 129.40 before a verbal intervention by the BoJ. EURUSD Is at 1.0813 and GBPUSD at 1.3025. Gold and Silver lost some ground on high yields and falling oil and are now at 1940 and 24.99. The USD Index falls slightly to 100.70
Netflix suffered falling subscriber numbers for the first time in a decade, stocks fell 24% in late trading. Twitter also lost 4.5% on uncertainty of a takeover. Elon Musk is rumored to provide an offer in the next ten days.
Credit Suisse expects Q1 loss due to legal costs.
Watch for Tesla earnings today.
Earnings this week:
Economic data:
Trade Safely!
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.