Asia Market Quick Take – 29 May, 2026

Asia Market Quick Take – 29 May, 2026 

Key points:  

• Macro: US, Iran agree tentative 60-day truce, Hormuz reopening; Trump approval pending 
• Equities: Dell soars 38% on massive AI-server growth; Costco posts strong sales and memberships 
• FX: Dollar weakened on Iran truce, soft PCE; yen strengthens near 160 
• Commodities: Oil swings on Iran conflict and truce news; gold and silver rebound 
• Fixed income: Treasuries extend rally on Iran peace hopes 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.  

 Macro:  

• The US and Iran reportedly reached a tentative 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though the agreement awaits President Trump's final approval. The deal would allow unrestricted shipping through the strait without tolls or harassment. 
• US April PCE inflation rose 3.8% YoY, the highest since May 2023, driven by elevated energy costs. Core PCE came in at 0.2% MoM versus the 0.3% estimate, a modest positive surprise. Personal income was flat versus an expected 0.4% gain while spending rose 0.5%. 
• US Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6% annualised from the initial 2.0% estimate, below consensus expectations, driven by weaker consumer spending growth. 
• Fed speakers struck a cautious but increasingly hawkish tone. St. Louis Fed's Musalem warned the real policy rate is below neutral, longer-term inflation expectations are drifting up, and a rate hike scenario exists if disinflation does not materialise within one to two quarters. 
• ECB April meeting accounts showed a number of officials said the decision was a close call and they would not have opposed a hike at that meeting. The accounts firmly point to a June 10-11 rate hike as priced by markets. 
• Tokyo CPI data releases this morning and is the key near-term data point for BOJ rate hike expectations. Markets are pricing approximately 75% probability of a BOJ hike in June and 92% by July. 
•  Canada Q1 GDP releases today with consensus around 1.4% annualised growth, rebounding from a -0.6% Q4 contraction. Canada's Q1 current account deficit widened sharply to C$7.2 billion from C$1.0 billion, surpassing the C$4.3 billion consensus.

Equities:  

• US: US equity indexes hit record highs on Thursday as the S&P 500 advanced 0.6% to 7,563.63, marking its sixth consecutive daily gain. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.9% to 26,917.47, also hitting a record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up less than 0.1% to 50,668.97. Dell Technologies soared 38% in after-hours trading after raising its full-year revenue outlook to $165-169 billion including $60 billion from AI server sales, with AI-server revenue up 757% in Q1. Hewlett Packard Enterprise climbed 16%, while Super Micro Computer added 10% after-hours in tandem. Agilent Technologies surged nearly 17% after its full-year earnings forecast beat estimates. Costco’s Q3 saw EPS in line with expectations, revenue beat at $70.5 billion, comparable sales up 9.8%, membership income up 7% and renewal rates near 90%. Anthropic became the world’s most valuable AI startup after raising $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation, nearly tripling its February mark; its run-rate revenue is reportedly above $47 billion, and Apollo/Blackstone are arranging about $36 billion in debt to finance Google TPU purchases.
• EU: European stocks fell on Thursday as the Stoxx 600 index closed 0.5% lower, having earlier shed as much as 1% as traders awaited confirmation of the US-Iran ceasefire reports. The FTSE 100 fell 0.8% to 10,425.96, its largest one-day decline since May 15. The DAX dropped 0.3% to 25,092.25 for its third consecutive day of losses. The Euro Stoxx 50 ended 0.25% lower at 6,055.11. French chip material engineer Soitec soared after projecting a 15% revenue uptick for Q1 2027. Siemens Energy led declines, falling 4.4%, while Dassault Systemes dropped 5.7%.
• Asia: Asian equity index futures for Australia, Japan and Hong Kong were all pointing higher early Friday, tracking the S&P 500's sixth consecutive record close and positive US-Iran ceasefire news. On Thursday, South Korea's Kospi fell 0.5% to 8,185.29 after dropping as much as 4% intraday following the Bank of Korea's hawkish signal, though resilient dip buying limited losses. The index is up 207% from a year ago, driven by AI-fuelled chip stocks. Japan's Nikkei declined 0.5% to 64,693.12 on Thursday as fresh military strikes in the Persian Gulf stoked concern about peace deal prospects. Taiwan's Taiex hit an intraday record before turning negative. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated from a record, ending a five-day winning streak.

FX: 

• USD weakened after reports of a tentative 60‑day US–Iran ceasefire extension, pending Trump’s approval, pushing the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.2%. A softer‑than‑expected April PCE print (0.4% vs 0.5% forecast) added to the pressure. SEK and NZD leading G-10 advances.
• JPY was the only G-10 currency to gain Thursday, with USDJPY slipping marginally to 159.25 and nearing the 160 level associated with past intervention, prompting hedging ahead of Tokyo CPI. 
• EUR rose 0.22% to 1.1652, breaking a two-day losing streak but remaining in consolidation near its 55-day moving average; it’s seen as better placed versus sterling if the ECB hikes in June. 
• CAD strengthened 0.40% against the USD to 1.3786, its largest one-day gain since April 30, snapping a two-session losing streak for the greenback. The move came ahead of today's Q1 GDP release. 
•  Emerging-market FX logged a seventh straight advance, the longest run since January 2025, on optimism over a potential US–Iran accord, while USDCNH edged up 0.1% to 6.7883.

Commodities: 

• WTI settled at $88.90 (+0.2%) and Brent at $93.71 (-0.6%) after an unusually volatile Thursday that saw WTI trade across nearly a $10 range. Prices first spiked on fresh Iranian drone attacks and US airstrikes in the Strait of Hormuz, then reversed sharply after reports of a tentative 60‑day US–Iran ceasefire deal, pending Trump’s approval.
• Gold futures rose 1.1% to $4,499.30 per troy ounce on Thursday, snapping a three-session losing streak, as tentative hopes of a US-Iran deal supported the precious metal. Silver climbed 1.4% to $75.645 per ounce. CME Group lowered margins on gold and silver futures contracts after a review of market volatility. 
• Copper futures settled 1.36% higher at $6.3960 per pound on Thursday, the largest one-day gain since May 20, marking the fifth-highest close in history. LME 3-month copper closed $170 higher at $13,702 per ton, supported by supply concerns and AI infrastructure demand.

Fixed income:  

• Treasuries rallied on Thursday on the peace deal report with yields falling 1 to 3 basis points across the curve and the long end outperforming. The 10-year yield fell 2.9 basis points to 4.455%, marking six consecutive sessions of declines, the longest streak since April 2025. The 30-year yield declined 2.7 basis points to 4.984%. 
•  The US Treasury's $44 billion 7-year note auction stopped through at 4.290% versus the 4.291% when-issued yield at the bidding deadline, indicating demand slightly exceeded expectations. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.52, above the previous auction's 2.51, with the 10.4% primary dealer award the lowest in three months. 

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