Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Twin AI-valuation and oil shocks drove the S&P 500 to its worst session in a month, with Asia and the Kospi following sharply lower
• Volatility: VIX jumped back above 18 as the AI and oil shocks hit; the FOMC and mega-cap earnings are next week's tests
• Digital Assets: Crypto equities fell with tech while bitcoin held above 65,000; the SEC settled its long-running Coinbase case
• Commodities: Brent closed above 100 dollars for the first time since May on the widening Iran conflict, while gold slipped on higher real yields
• Fixed Income: Treasury yields hit 2026 highs for a fourth day as oil revived inflation and Fed-hike bets
• Currencies: The dollar firmed on oil and safe-haven flows; the yen sat at multi-decade lows and the kiwi lagged
• Macro: AI-spending doubts and 100 dollar oil reset the risk mood, reviving talk of a Fed hike days before the FOMC

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Macro

• The mood turned sharply risk-averse as two forces collided: renewed doubts over whether the roughly 725 billion dollars of hyperscaler AI spending will pay off, crystallised by Alphabet's raised 2026 capital-expenditure guidance, and a surge in Brent crude above 100 dollars a barrel on the widening US-Iran conflict. A gauge of the Magnificent 7 shed about 797 billion dollars of market value in a single session.
• Higher energy costs have revived the prospect of a Fed rate hike. Money markets now price roughly a 35% chance of an increase at next week's FOMC meeting, up from about 10% a week ago, with a hike fully priced by September. The 28 to 29 July meeting is increasingly treated as a live decision rather than a formality.
• In trade policy, the US began collecting duties of 10% to 12.5% on imports from around 60 countries from today, its biggest step yet to rebuild the tariff wall struck down by the Supreme Court. Elsewhere, Japan's June inflation rose to 1.7%, the highest since December, keeping Bank of Japan tightening in view ahead of its 31 July meeting, while the ECB left rates unchanged on Thursday after June's hike.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1600 CET: US new home sales (June)
Next week: FOMC decision (Wednesday 29 July), then US Q2 GDP and the PCE deflator (Thursday 30 July)

Earnings events

• Thursday (yesterday): Intel, Rtx Corp, T-Mobile US, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Nasdaq Inc, Verisign, Dow, Blackstone, American Airlines, ...
• Friday (today): Exxon Mobil, American Express, NextEra Energy, Verizon, ...
• Next week: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, plus Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and more ...

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 1.21% to 7,408.30 on Thursday, its worst session in a month, as 100 dollar oil and AI-return doubts hit sentiment. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.87% and the Dow fell 0.97%. Tesla plunged 14.5%, its steepest fall since March 2025, after profit tumbled despite solid EV deliveries, and Alphabet slid 7.1% on a raised 2026 capex outlook of up to 205 billion dollars. Amazon fell 4.6%, Meta 3.4%, Microsoft 2.2% and Nvidia 1.6%. Against the tide, Intel rose about 4% after guiding Q3 revenue to 15.8 to 16.8 billion dollars, well above the 15.1 billion consensus. Defensives and cyclicals outperformed, with utilities, healthcare and industrials higher while consumer discretionary and communication services led the losses. US futures point modestly lower this morning.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 1.2% to 639.27 on Thursday, its biggest drop since 8 July, with banks leading losses. Nestle suffered a record single-day fall of 8.0% on weaker North American volumes, while STMicroelectronics tumbled 17.7%, the index's largest mover, after below-consensus guidance. European futures are little changed to lower this morning.
• Asia: Regional markets sold off broadly on Friday, with MSCI's Asia Pacific gauge down 2.3%. South Korea's Kospi slumped about 6% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell more than 7% on the global chip reversal. Nikkei futures fell 2.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng 1.3%, the Shanghai Composite 1.2% and Australia's ASX 200 0.9%.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 18.70 | VIX FUTURES: 19.65 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (145.95) | MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• A twin shock hit markets: doubts over hyperscaler AI returns after Alphabet's raised capex, and Brent crude topping $100 on the widening Iran conflict. The S&P 500 fell 1.21% to 7,408.30, its worst session in a month. VIX jumped 12% to 18.70, while VIX1D rose 29% to 14.71.
• The curve held in contango, VIX3M at 20.60 and the front VIX future 19.65, while MOVE rose to 80.08 and oil vol OVX near 69 ran about four times the VIX. SPX options imply about 51 points (0.69%) for today's expiry and 140 points (1.88%) into next Friday, ahead of the FOMC.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~65,587 -0.72% | ETHEREUM ~1,919 -0.72% | IBIT 36.65 -1.85% | ETHA 14.11 -2.82% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• Digital assets stayed on the defensive, tracking the risk-off tone in equities as the AI-spending scare and the oil-driven inflation shock hit high-beta assets. US crypto equities fell broadly on Thursday, with Coinbase, Strategy and Circle among the decliners, though bitcoin held above 65,000 and outperformed the Nasdaq.
• On the regulatory side, the SEC settled its long-running dispute with Coinbase over former chair Gensler's ether-related messages, agreeing to a flat fee, while Senate Republicans unveiled a revised market-structure bill.

Commodities

• Crude oil closed above 100 dollars a barrel for the first time since May, with Brent up about 7% to 100.69 and WTI near 92, leaving oil up roughly 38% this month. The bid reflects Houthi attacks on Red Sea tankers, President Trump's threat of a "massive attack" on Iran, and strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal that handles most Kazakh crude. Oil vol (OVX) held near 69.
• Gold retreated about 2% to around 4,030 dollars an ounce, extending its slide since it broke below 4,000 in late June, as higher real yields and rate-hike bets dulled its appeal. Silver fell more than 3%.
• Copper traded near 6.32 dollars a pound, with the top-20 brokers on the Shanghai Futures Exchange lifting aggregate net-short positions to 21,230 contracts, reflecting a more cautious stance.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries fell for a fourth day, pushing yields to fresh 2026 highs as the oil surge revived inflation fears and Fed-hike bets. The 10-year yield held near 4.70% after rising four basis points on Thursday, the 2-year climbed as much as seven basis points toward 4.36%, and the 30-year stayed above 5.17%, extending its long run above 5%.
• The Treasury sold 110 billion dollars of 4-week bills at 3.73% and 100 billion of 8-week bills at 3.795%, both record sizes. Big-tech corporate bond spreads widened on AI-debt concerns, with Meta and Oracle leading, while municipal bonds underperformed. Overseas, the UK 10-year rose seven basis points to 5.10% and Australia's nine to 5.08%.

Currencies

• The dollar firmed, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.3% on Thursday for its biggest weekly gain in a month on higher oil and safe-haven demand, and little changed this morning. EURUSD slipped 0.31% to 1.1377 on Thursday and traded near 1.1382 this morning, with a hawkish ECB already priced and energy costs weighing. GBPUSD fell 0.45% to 1.3315, down about 1% on the week.
• USDJPY climbed toward 163.80, leaving the yen at multi-decade lows even as Japan's CPI firmed, with the Bank of Japan due on 31 July. NZDUSD was the weakest G10 currency, down 0.79% to 0.5772 on risk-off pressure, while USDCNH held near 6.778 after a firmer PBOC fixing.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

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