Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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US Election Check-In Asia Morning: More Noise than Signal...
Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
US Election Check-In Asia Morning: More Noise than Signal... Could Texas be a game changer for either?
Top of Mind…
Obviously early days, yet early indications show a lot more noise before we get a clear signal
Great points below from John here at the crazy 0330 local time
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"2020 Election Night status before I turn in for a couple of hours sleep:
- Trump is winning Florida by larger margin than 2016 (won then by 1.2%, with 93% in it is at 3.0% in his favour and likely to tilt more R with remaining vote), with huge shift in Miami area the key shift
- North Carolina (went for Trump by 3 points in 2016) in Biden’s favour with almost 80% precincts counted, but margin shrinking fast and NY Times leans strongly for Trump to win there
- If Florida situation is specific to Miami and Cuban voters, there is still a narrow path for Biden, but contested election/narrow win looks like his best bet – will be a long wait for results if it is about Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin again.
- Will maybe come down to Pennsylvania and Arizona if Trump takes Florida, Ohio and North Carolina"
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So Florida is looking too close & NC indicating that despite Biden's initial lead, balance of the count could favor Trump towards the same signal (or lack thereof) of Florida.
Currently it looks like the only thing that can take the mkt from a clear & smooth pathway is a big Biden win in Texas
Otherwise we may have to count every last bean… & could be in for quite a spell
Remember from a near-term markets' perspective – its less about a Biden or Trump victory… but a bigger margin that points towards a quicker outcome
Currently 1045 SGT 2145 ET 0345 CET – the AP is showing us 131 for Biden vs. 92 for Trump…
Remember Texas is 38 points
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