Market Quick Take - November 12, 2020

Market Quick Take - November 12, 2020

Macro 6 minutes to read
Picture of John Hardy
John J. Hardy

Chief Macro Strategist

Summary:  Global markets, with the notable exception of China on its anti-monopoly push, largely remained on the rally track yesterday before easing back lower overnight. Even US mega-caps bounced back after their sell-off earlier this week. Elsewhere, the USD and JPY edged back higher, while the Chinese currency is back close to a one-week low versus the US dollar.


What is our trading focus?

Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - after a remarkable start to the week and unprecedented shifts in value versus growth that occurred in the wake of the hopes generated by the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine, the market was a bit more “normal” yesterday with an across-the-board rally. Still, the Nasdaq 100 is in the shadow of its early week sell-off and would need to retake 12,200-12,400 to force the focus back higher. The S&P 500 likewise needs to work well back above 3,600 to avoid an ugly weekly candlestick (currently a shooting star).

STOXX 50 (EU50.I) - European equities have gained the most from Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine news but today the rally has ended. At least in early hours of trading. Yesterday’s low of 3,421 in STOXX 50 futures is the key support level today if risk breaks down.

EURUSD – EURUSD super major is working into its last important retracement levels where it must make a stand or find itself in danger of an outright reversal back toward the 1.1600 lows. The 1.1725 area is the 61.8% retracement of the rally wave that topped out in the wake of the US Election result last week. The ECB’s Lagarde waxed rather dovish in a speech yesterday (see below).

USDCNH – the USDCNH exchange rate is up toward the highs of the week above 6.62 - also a notable prior low back in October – as the US dollar has firmed somewhat. But possibly also weighing on the Chinese currency is the Chinese authorities anti-trust push and delay of the Ant Group IPO, which may mean a reduced enthusiasm for pouring in to mainland equities. The USDHKD rate even managed to lift off the low of the managed band in recent weeks, perhaps on the same development. The next major chart area higher if the very persistent downtrend consolidates looks like 6.75.

Brent crude (OILUKJAN21) and WTI crude oil (OILUSDEC20) ended a three-day rally with a sharp reversal after the focus switched from vaccine hopes to virus fears with the case count surging in major economies. OPEC made a fourth consecutive cut to its 2021 world oil demand rebound while the market continues to price in a much-needed delay of the OPEC+ January production hike, not least considering the 1 million b/d rise in Libyan production since August. Focus today the one-day delayed U.S. inventory report together with IEA’s Oil Market Report for November. In Brent a break below $43.50/b may signal a move back towards $40/b.

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to find support ahead of key support at $1850/oz with the focus firmly on the dollar and U.S. bond yields where 1% on 10-year Notes have become a major focus. Overnight yields moved lower again with vaccine hopes turning to virus fear with a fresh wave of coronavirus infections in major economies partly offsetting a stronger dollar. During the past six weeks, ETF investors have maintained an unchanged exposure around 111 million ounces with no signs of the bullish trade getting exhausted. Resistance at $1895 and $1908.

10-year Treasury yields approached pivotal 1% level only to retreat to 94bps by end of day. Today’s 30-year auction will dictate sentiment in the long part of the yield curve (10YUSTNOTEDEC20). 10-year yields to 99bps only to retrace by end of day. Today the Treasury is going to auction $27bn of 30-year Treasuries and it will set the tone for the steepening in the long part of the yield curve. The Federal Reserve will probably let rates rise for the moment being, however if 10-year yields break the main line in their decennial descending trading channel at 1.50%, we might see the Fed intervening.

Lagarde’s speech at the ECB’s annual forum sparks European sovereigns’ rally led by the periphery (10YBTPDEC20, 10YOATDEC20). As the ECB sees more scope for stimulus and to expand its PEPP program, sovereigns from the periphery rally. The periphery is leading the block once again. Within this space we believe that 30-year BTPs trade richer compared to their peers. For more click here.

Burberry (BRBY:xlon) - first half results show comparative sales of -25% vs est. -27% with management still seeing headwinds in FY21 2H. On a positive note, the last quarter of the first half result saw comparative sales of only -6% vs. -10% expected. The company is also saying that will reduce markdowns to restore profitability.

What is going on?

ECB President Lagarde said the next stimulus will rely on further QE and loans – and there was no mention of interest rate cuts as a tool for delivering support to the economy. She claimed that the PEPP and TLTRO programmes have “proven their effectiveness” and her comments lead observers to believe that the December ECB meeting could see a larger than previously anticipated increase in the QE programme, and perhaps an extension of its duration, as well as expanding generosity on the terms and maturity of additional TLTRO loans to banks. Lagarde mentioned that the EUR exchange rate could affect the inflation outlook.

Regarding US President Trump’s challenge of the election results, the Republican attorney general of Arizona said yesterday that it is “highly unlikely” the state will end up going to Trump after the results showed him losing the state. A judge in Maricopa County, Arizona’s largest, rejected a Trump legal team move on claims by polling workers on rejecting ballots in the count on weak evidence. In Georgia, which Trump lost by a very narrow margin, a hand recount of votes has been ordered.

What we are watching next?

Moderna (MRNA:xnas) is expecting results for its vaccine candidate in coming days. The technology and delivery mechanism for the vaccine candidate is very similar to the one used by Pfizer (PFE:xnys), and experts consider it likely that the drug will see a similar rate of effectiveness around 90%

US political uncertainty. The longer the US President Trump holds out and refuses to concede, the higher the risk that this eventually begins to get picked up on the market’s radar. The complacent view is that fellow Republican politicians are nominally supporting their president as they nervously eye his base supporting their own political fortunes and will give the legal challenges time to play out. The bigger political uncertainty will then quickly revert to the two Senate run-off elections in Georgia, where the Democrats can get a control of the Senate if they win both seats.

Q3 earnings season continues this week. Below list shows the largest companies reporting for the rest of the week:

  • Today: Tencent, National Grid, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Merck KGaA, Mizuho Financial Group, Walt Disney, Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, Pinduoduo, Brookfield Asset Management
  • Friday: JD.com, Nippon Paint Holdings, SMC Corp/Japan, Japan Post Bank, Japan Post Holdings, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Engie, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group

Economic Calendar Highlights for today (times GMT)

  • 0800 – UK Bank of England Governor Bailey to Speak
  • 0830 – Sweden Oct. CPI
  • 1000 – Euro Zone Sep. Industrial Production
  • 1330 – US Oct. CPI
  • 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims
  • 1530 – US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
  • 1600 – US DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories
  • 1645 – ECB’s Lagarde, US Fed’s Powell, BoE’s Bailey at ECB forum
  • 1830 – Canada Bank of Canada’s Wilkins to Speak
  • 1900 – Mexico Central Bank Rate Announcement

Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app:

Apple Sportify Soundcloud Stitcher

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.