Summary: Asian stocks fell with US futures as yields on 10-year Treasuries reach a 16-year high above 4.54% while China Evergrande Group missed a debt payment adding to fears about the sectors massive debt pile. Broad dollar strength continues with the greenback trading at its highest level since December as another Fed member said another rate hike this year will be needed. Crude oil trades softer amid macroeconomic concerns and a stretched speculative long while gold holds support despite multiple headwinds.
The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.
Equities: S&P 500 futures are under pressure this morning with the US 10-year yield hitting 4.55% extending its relentless move higher. If the US 10-year yield moves to 4.75% we will most likely begin seeing widening cracks in equities as the prevailing narrative of falling inflation collapses. Yesterday’s session saw no meaningful rotation between defensive and cyclical sectors. Today’s key events are US consumer confidence figures and Costco earnings tonight after the market close.
FX: Higher Treasury yields, particularly in the long end, pushed the dollar higher to extend its gains. USDCHF rose to near 4-month highs of 0.9136 with immediate target at 0.9162 which is 0.382 retracement level. EURUSD broke below 1.06 support despite better-than-expected German Ifo. USDJPY attempted a move towards 149 with verbal intervention remaining lacklustre. AUD slipped on China woes while NZD and CAD were relative gainers, and the outperformer was SEK with the Riksbank starting its FX hedging today.
Commodities: Crude trades lower for a second day with macroeconomic concerns, a stronger dollar and a stretched speculative long and easing refinery margin weighing on prices. Gold prices continue to defy gravity, holding above $1900 support with demand for stagflation protection offsetting the current yield and dollar surge. LME copper is trading at the widest contango (oversupply) since at least 1994 as inventories expand and China demand concerns persist. Wheat continues to face downward pressure from huge Russian harvest despite weather related downgrades in Australia.
Fixed Income. The Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer message reverberates through higher long-term US Treasury yields. Unless there is a sign that the job market is weakening significantly or that the economy is slowing down quickly, long-term yields will continue to soar. With 10-year yields breaking above 4.5% and selling pressure continuing to mount through an increase in coupon supply, quantitative tightening, and waning foreign investors demand, it’s likely to see yields continue to rise until something breaks. This week, our attention turns to US PCE numbers and Europe CPI data while the US Treasury will sell 2-, 5- and 7-year notes. It will be interesting to see if investors buy the belly of the yield curve as a sign that they are preparing for a bull rather than a bear-steepening. Overall, we continue to favour short-term maturities and quality.
Volatility: VIX Index still sits at around the 17 level, but the downward pressure in equity futures this morning could push the VIX much higher. This could be a cycle where the market tests the 20 level.
Macro: Fed’s Goolsbee (voter) kept the door open for more rate hikes while emphasizing higher-for-longer. Moody’s warned of a protracted government shutdown saying that it could weigh on consumer confidence and markets. Meanwhile, after PMIs, Germany’s Ifo also showed a slight improvement in business outlook to 85.7 vs. 85.2 expected, while the previous was revised higher to 85.8. There were several ECB speakers once again. Lagarde largely repeated what was said at the ECB Press Conference, noting policy rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to target. Schnabel said there is not yet an all-clear for the inflation problem.
In the news: Interest rates will stay high 'as long as necessary,' the European Central Bank's leader says (Quartz), Teetering China Property Giants Undercut Xi’s Revival Push (Bloomberg), Russia dodges G7 price cap sanctions on most of its oil exports (FT), Global trade falls at fastest pace since pandemic (FT), Dimon Warns World Not Ready for 7% Fed Rate: Times of India via Bloomberg
Technical analysis: S&P500 downtrend support at 4,328 & 4,200. Nasdaq 100 support at 14,687 &14,254. DAX downtrend support at 14,933. EURUSD below strong support, resuming downtrend to 1.05. GBPUSD downtrend strong support at 1.2175. Gold rangebound 1,900-1,950. Crude oil correction: WTI expect to 87.58. Brent to 80.62. US 10-year T-yields 4.55, uptrend but expect minor correction
Macro events: US New Home Sales (Aug) exp 699k vs 714k prior (1400 GMT), US Consumer Confidence (Sep) exp 105.5 vs 106.1 prior. Speeches from Fed’s Bowman (voter) as well as ECB’s Lane, Simkus and Muller.
Earnings events: Costco reports FY23 Q4 earnings (aft-mkt) today with estimated revenue growth of 8% y/y and EPS growth of 14% y/y. H&M reports FY23 Q3 earnings (bef-mkt) with estimated revenue growth of 7% y/y and EPS growth of 47% y/y. Micron Technology reports FY23 Q4 earnings (aft-mkt) with estimated revenue growth of -41% y/y and EPS of $-1.18 vs $1.37 a year ago. Accenture reports FY23 Q4 earnings (bef-mkt) with estimated revenue growth of 4% y/y and EPS unchanged from a year ago. Nike reports FY24 Q1 earnings (aft-mkt) with estimated revenue growth of 3% y/y and EPS growth of –20% y/y.
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
