The G-10 rundown
USD – firm outside of the G3 and versus the CHF, but could fall versus the hard charging JPY. US CPI up tomorrow and Retail Sales on Thursday, but economic data is not in the driver’s seat for the USD outlook – liquidity and trade issues are paramount.
EUR – the euro not much of a safe haven currency – interesting data points through tomorrow’s German ZEW and interesting to watch how the market treats Italian debt as a new election looms eventually.
JPY – remains firm and if risk appetite, at key levels entering this week, fades again, the currency could continue to drive higher, driven by strong bond markets/falling yields.
GBP – EURGBP cleared new highs above 0.9300 this morning and GBPUSD staring down 1.2000 as no relief in sight for hard Brexit risks, with the EU side showing no signs of backing down.
CHF – playing copycat to JPY moves and hard Brexit risks are adding a bit of extra fuel to the CHF strength. EURCHF looks heavy as long as it stays below 1.10.
AUD – heavy below 0.6800 again in AUDUSD as the ongoing collapse in iron prices has added a new negative angle on the Aussie over the last week on top of the US-China trade tensions. Key employment data release on Thursday sets the tone further.
CAD – Canada was overdue a weak employment report after an absurdly positive April data point of +106.5k and that’s what we got at -24.2k for July – hard to use the data series for much. More supportive was the hourly wage figure, which rose to a robust +4.5% year-on-year in July – the highest since the financial crisis. But can CAD stay ahead of a firm US dollar? 1.3300-25 is the decisive area in USDCAD.
NZD – surprisingly little follow-on weakness in NZD after Adrian Orr’s dovish broadside. Still looking for downside risks via AUDNZD and NZDUSD/NZDJPY, etc.
SEK – Swedish CPI up on Wednesday as the focus this week on EURSEK cyclical top above 10.80 if risk appetite worsens.
NOK – market suspects the Norges Bank could see its determination to maintain a hiking bias softened at this Thursday’s Norges Bank meeting and weaker oil prices are providing pressure as well as EURNOK last week the highs since the global financial crisis above 10.00.