Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - Top and Reversal Signs in SP 500 and Nasdaq 100: Will the Correction Be Shallow or Deep?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
The S&P 500 index formed a bearish engulfing top and reversal-like pattern on Thursday, taking out the previous two days of index gains. A correction is now in the cards.
The strength indicator RSI, which is showing positive sentiment and no divergence (i.e., not indicating uptrend exhaustion), suggests that this is merely a correction rather than a trend reversal. However, the correction could test the gap area between 5,501 and 5,455.
A daily close below 5,455 could lead to further selling down to support at around 5,375.
A daily close above yesterday’s high at 5,644 will cancel the top and reversal pattern and instead extend the bullish move. A test of all-time highs could then be in the cards.
The strength indicator RSI, which is showing positive sentiment and no divergence (i.e., not indicating uptrend exhaustion), suggests that this is merely a correction rather than a trend reversal. However, the correction could test the gap area between 5,501 and 5,455.
A daily close below 5,455 could lead to further selling down to support at around 5,375.
A daily close above yesterday’s high at 5,644 will cancel the top and reversal pattern and instead extend the bullish move. A test of all-time highs could then be in the cards.
US500 CFD Levels:
A correction down to the 0.382 retracement at 5,430 is possible, with strong support at 5,403.
A break above 5,643 is very likely to extend the bullish trend towards all-time highs.
A correction down to the 0.382 retracement at 5,430 is possible, with strong support at 5,403.
A break above 5,643 is very likely to extend the bullish trend towards all-time highs.
The Nasdaq 100 also formed a bearish engulfing top and reversal-like pattern on Thursday, taking out the previous three days of bullish moves.
The Nasdaq 100 closed below the support at 19,522, so despite RSI still showing positive sentiment, a correction could hit the Index.
A bearish move down to around 19,000 could be seen.
However, the 55 daily Moving Average is still rising, meaning the correction could be limited.
Key strong support is at around 18,768–18,654.
If the Nasdaq 100 closes above Thursday’s high at 19,393, the top and reversal pattern will be invalidated, and the bullish move is likely to be extended, challenging strong resistance at around 20,211 and possibly reaching all-time highs
The Nasdaq 100 closed below the support at 19,522, so despite RSI still showing positive sentiment, a correction could hit the Index.
A bearish move down to around 19,000 could be seen.
However, the 55 daily Moving Average is still rising, meaning the correction could be limited.
Key strong support is at around 18,768–18,654.
If the Nasdaq 100 closes above Thursday’s high at 19,393, the top and reversal pattern will be invalidated, and the bullish move is likely to be extended, challenging strong resistance at around 20,211 and possibly reaching all-time highs
USNAS100 cfd levels: a correction down to 0.382 retracement and support at 18,900 could be occur.
The rising 100 daily Moving Average will add to the support.
A close above 19,934 will extend the bullish move with resistance at around 20,219
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...